Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc fka KERX

[pickinstocks]

There was a post on motley fool about how Perifosine will fail phase 3 trials like so many other cancer drugs. Therefore, I dug around for why so many drugs fail phase 3 to see if there is anything to set Perifosine apart. One study found at http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/pharmaceuticalsmedicalproducts/pdf/why_products_fail_in_phase_III_in_vivo_0406.pdf says that 50% of drugs fail for lack of efficacy, 30% from safety concerns, and 20% can't be proven safer or more effective than drugs currently on the market. From this, I notice the 50% number. Does anyone have numbers that suggest this wont be an issue for us? Phase 2 had good results, but there are other trials out there that had good phase 2 results and didn't make it through phase 3. I do like the second two numbers though. That 20% number becomes fairly obsolete because there really are no existing drugs on the market like Perifosine. The safety concerns shouldn't be an issue as long as the side effects from phase 2 (fatigue and some bowl issues) remain the only side effects.

Anyways, that bearish post on the fool bothered me so I figured I'd do my own digging, rather than let someone who, although he has a very high fool score, probably isn't putting his money where his mouth is and actually shorting this.