ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:336139, 12/19/04
12/14: (334238) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev- Is the dip below 2100 scenario dead here? Seems to be on very wobbly legs, no?
(*END*)
Not dead yet, though, on wobbly legs, as you say.
12/14: (334334) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev It has been a very busy day. Are you still neutral ?
(*END*)
Still neutral, cash still at 42%....
12/15: (334975) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I thought we were waiting for 1940's?, or was that 2050's
What's the point of all these predictions?
(*END*)
Not waiting for 1940 (that was a maginot line, not a target, the target is still the mid 2000). The point is capital preservation, when my model indicates danger of a strong retrenchment, exposure is reduced, when the model indicates "clear sailing", exposure is increased. Right now cash is at 42%, indicating caution (thus my neutral position, with a slight bullish leaning, since I still expect much higher prices by late January).
12/16: (335564) (*COMMENT*)
do you think that FASB requiring option expensing by June '05 will negatively impact your January rally? after all, we will be getting that much closer to people finding out the emperor(s) isn't wearing any clothes.
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The January rally has more to do with liquidity and the current "semi good" economic numbers, the new FASB rules will not take effect till mid year, I believe, and that will not be reported till September/October 2005. Furthermore, only new options cost will need to be reported, so a lot of options might be granted before, and after that date, they will engineer other incentives that are not "called" options, but nevertheless probably are.
12/17: (336000) (*COMMENT*)
Do you expect a pullback either early 05 or before year end? Or just keep pressing higher?
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Next week is the last window for a pull back, IMTO, so after early strength Monday, I am still allowing for a minor pull back the rest of the week. After that, my target of at least 2275 early in 05 is intact.
12/18: (336106) (*COMMENT*)
Funny enough, I'm back in the sandals again as well. My buy was a tad higher though, 43.46 was my - obviously not so outrageous - bid. I've had a much lower one originally (41.68) but greed won on me when I was looking at what I think is a very nice way of the COMP to reduce internal pressure.
Seeing you back in DECK certainly gives me a feeling of company <g>
I'm only entering OBs and OAs premarket these days as I'm very busy so shortly before christmas (same procedure every year...) but I've got some fills lately at my prices (OVTI, SLXP, GVHR, CELL, CMN) so I don't feel to bad. OTOH cash has been reduced to below 20% and some of my positions might reach lower levels - I guess I have to become very selective in the next days...
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I doubt I will get that low in cash, I have to be very bullish to go to 20% cash, right now I went to sleep with 46% cash it may go down to 35% or so by the middle of next week (particularly if they let me in the bu$$ under 25 and MERQ in the low $43). Also will put a bid for CCMP in the neighborhood of $37 or so. I am not in Monday morning and depending on overnight foreign market will decide if to put in some OB's or wait till the fog clears by mid morning. As for DECK and CMN, are you going to wait for a new high or just take double triple bucker (I already have the double on CMN, but I wanted "more", greed). SLXP is still showing that nasty supply just above $18, a bad market could drop it to $16 or a little lower again, where I definitely would reenter. If I get these four, I'll be pretty close to the 35% target (g).
What is that GVHR, chart is not half bad, but financials are tough to decipher, anything special you like there?
PS the sandals, I had to raise my OB few times as well, I had one at 41.80 on the swoon about 10 days ago, it printed it, but that time they did not take my bid as they did yesterday.
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