Good news:
in airport didn't get time to detail but here's the gist:
AGS MASK OTHER COMMODITY GAINS... The point of Chart 4 is twofold. One is to emphasize that most commodity groups turned up in early February along with the three commodity currencies (not shown here). The second purpose is to demonstrate that agricultural markets are making the commodity gains look smaller than they really are. The main portion of Chart 4 shows the DB Commodity Tracking Fund (DBC) just breaking through its March high. By contrast, the PS Energy ETF (DBE) is testing its 2010 high (crude oil has already hit a new high), while the Industrial Metal ETF (DBB) is right behind (copper has already hit a new record). The third line shows the Precious Metal ETF testing its March high (silver has already broken out). By contrast, the PS Agricultural ETF (lowest line) has continued to drop sharply. The DBA is being pulled lower by grain and sugar prices. Of all the commodity groups, agriculturals are the least economically-sensitive (and are driven by crop and weather conditions). As a result, weakness in that group is preventing commodity Indexes (like the CRB and DBC) from showing stronger gains. And, in my view, that is masking the much stronger gains in economically-sensitive commodities like energy and metals. Which brings us back to my original point that too much focus on the weaker Euro is calling attention away from rising commodity-based currencies, while weak agriculatural markets are masking gains in more economically-sensitive commodities. In other words, the outlook for commodities (and their related shares) is even better than it looks on the charts of the U.S. Dollar Index and the CRB Index. And, to the extent that rising commodities reflect economic strength, that's positive for stocks as well. The only market it's bad for is bonds.
