InvestorsHub Logo
Followers 7
Posts 323
Boards Moderated 0
Alias Born 05/15/2009

Re: elliot1234 post# 212460

Friday, 04/02/2010 11:52:07 AM

Friday, April 02, 2010 11:52:07 AM

Post# of 326351
Erm, again, what profit?


It's kind of like you own a coffee shop, elliott, and last year you sold $10 of coffee each day, and your expenses were $12 of coffee beans and $100 for rent and the barista. Your gross loss is $2/day but obviously it's losing $102 per day, 'really'. (We call this operating loss or EBIT, roughly.) And then today, your price of coffee drops to $6/day and you say HURRAH, I'm making $4/day! Not quite.

Especially if that's because you bought a bunch of coffee beans last year, and they've started to go stale, so you say, hmm, this coffee is worth half as much now, so it must only be costing me half as much now! Inventory writedowns.


Operating profit is indeed better, mostly on cost-cutting. You can only grow so fast by cutting costs, since costs can't get below 0. Top-line growth (just getting more sales, money in the door) is key, and there is simply nothing of significance here.

Good news? Though net loss is way, way up, though you can attribute that to massively increased liability on convertible debt. The stock price moved up and around in 2009, making it appear to be more likely to be worth something later. That made the debt's theoretical value skyrocket.

Since the stock price has tanked and stabilized, actually, these liabilities will come down. You'll perhaps see a positive net profit next year on change in fair value as a result!


Loss per share right now is 0.03 -- or $3.00 after this 100:1 reverse split. That's a hell of a swing to predict -- loss of $60M to after-tax profit of $5-$10M? Where's this $70M coming from? With that kind of growth you'd sure get a huge P/E multiple!

Check the top of page 39. 21B shares can be outstanding can convert, on top of the existing 2B outstanding. And they will if there's anything like the success you predict, diluting ordinary shares by 11x. Still happy?