Distribution Math 1,357% increase, 60 Days
As of March 1, 2010 Cobroxin was in:
Winn-Dixie 515 Stores
Hannaford 171
Sweet Bay 104
Duane-Reade 253
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Total Stores 1,043
As of May 1, 2010 that we know of for sure:
Winn-Dixie 515 Stores
Hannaford 171
Sweet Bay 104
Duane-Reade 253
CVS 7,200
Walgreens 7,162
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Total Stores 15,205
That is a 1,357% increase in distribution in 60 days. They did $895,000 in sales for entire 1st Quarter with about 1/14th the average amount of known national or regional stores selling it as we will have by end of the 2nd Quarter. You can see why the Walgreens and CVS deals are truly huge news when you look at the math.
That does not mean their total sales will go up 1,357% sequentially from 1st Q. These are the Wild West days of XenaCare and XCHO growth, there are plenty more factors and they did have some distribution at end of 2009 4th Q, and they sell a lot on www.Cobroxin.com.
I do think a Sequential Triple is likely however. Lets say $2.7 million for 2nd Q and very likely a profit. Their overhead is tiny, and TV ad production costs will be amorted over a year or more. Plus their ad buys are long term contracts, they only have to expense what is run in 2nd Q. Thus I think they will go profitable 1 Q ahead of my prior guess.
And the PR did say they are ahead of schedule on Cobroxin rollout. Rik has said they are expecting 1 million bottles a month by Dec 2010. The PR by XCHO says in effect they are ahead of schedule to reach that.
If they just reach or get close to that, $5 a share or more IMHO.
Cheers
AI
