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Re: viking86 post# 46

Saturday, 03/27/2010 1:51:11 PM

Saturday, March 27, 2010 1:51:11 PM

Post# of 214
Since I am unable to value the common effectively I don't know what the warrants potential value is. There is the risk that the common will tank after redemption to below the $6.65 breakeven point and then your only course of action will be to hold the common longer-term and hope for an upswing, or sell out at a loss.

I don't consider a warrant investment unless I am 100% confident in the business and it's prospects. That allows a much higher chance of success because my time horizon can be considerably longer.

I may be(and probably are)wrong with AERCF, so take this as my personal decision to avoid the obvious disconnect in value between the warrants and common.

As for China Ceramics I am quite certain both the common and the warrants will eventually be worth more than they are now, and will be happy to hold the common after redemption since I believe the value will still be compelling.


-Adam


"What goes down must come up" Inverse Newton

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