Your ideas make a good read; the only problem is that it's 100% speculation, with not a single fact to back it up. The facts will eventually be known, but guesswork doesn't seem like much of an investment strategy. There's nothing wrong with playing a low-odds casino game, as long as you realize that you're very likely to lose.
I've played this guessing game before, and I regret the time wasted in agonizing over buy/sell decisions; IMO, decide how much you're willing to lose, and bet that much BUT NOT A PENNY MORE. You can blame management, promoters, etc. for losses until the most recent news, but there won't be anyone to point the finger at from this point on.