Somaxon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SOMX)

[AloRichardLee]

Why I am holding SOMX to $16.4 or higher

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?m=tm&bn=26971&tid=27781&mid=27781&tof=16&frt=2

I am cash day trader as long. I don’t hold stock for too long from experience. But SOMX is blockbuster. IMO this should be better than HGSI ($2 to $14).


Before the approval, many did the sales estimation were among
$200M, $500M, $1B, $2B, or $3.9B. That was the reason you can see $6-$8, $8-$12, or $12-16 guessing PPS by senior or all population.


Now we got approved for all population. We have 23M outstanding shares.

10K filing said the market is $2B, and SOMX is talking about 20% of $2B market as first step, which is $400M. To me SOMX is honest to do the market sales estimation

Silenor doesn’t have the safety concern that Ambien and Lunesta have. Silenor can replace them easily (you can find the topic in MB), and 9/10 doctors are willing to use SOMX Silenor.

2009 sales for Ambien and Lunesta were close to 1.6B (can check the posts or news, one is close to 0.8B and one is 0ver 0.8B).

I use very basic calculation for my own rough PPS estimation.
$400M/23M =$16
$0.8B/23M=$32
$1.6B/23M=$64,
$2B/23M=$80

Now you can use your own fancy way for PPS calculation (2x, 4x, PES, buyout, partner, tax, discount royalty….).


If you like SOMX then daily PPS up and down won’t matter, and don’t let other steal your shares.

If you have any doubt then sell your shares and move on. That is what I do when I am in doubt, I would rather pass the chance and not get into it.

JMO

GLTA