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Re: Gittes post# 16940

Wednesday, 03/10/2010 5:56:10 PM

Wednesday, March 10, 2010 5:56:10 PM

Post# of 371974
All great perspectives on the multiple, however the reason it's difficult to attach multiples going forward at this stage of the game is lack of track record. All the companies used to compare at this point are on different stock exchanges with complete transparency and a lot of history of "knowns." The transparency with TDGI is in the works, and a lot of what enterprise value and multiple ascribed to them will be the history they are making right now as we speak. You've got to value them somehow, and I think the market still has them undervalued to where they should be. But without actual certified 2009 results and a transparent view into their financials, I can understand why we're stuck at this range. That said, this business is so difficult to predict future earnings. A perceived hit can be a bomb and vice versa. As has been mentioned many times, this really is a long term play. Long term means what will be happening this time next year and beyond. Eric and company are building, brick by brick, a solid foundation. There will be growth this year, but one never knows how much it will be. As has been correctl pointed out, they could bomb this year and have disappointing earnings. Don't bet the farm on that, just know it's a possibility. What's more probable than not is they will experience triple digit revenue growth this year based on the foundation being laid right now coming to fruition. The correct first step to see what enterprise value and multiple to ascribe to TDGI will be when we all have a transparent view into their financials as we progress through the year. I for one am excited and can't wait to see this company grow from being a child to an adult...