General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP)

[justthefactsmam]

the beauty of the new offer:

with the $15/share floor established, if simon were to offer $20/share, how might fairholm/bam/pershing respond?

if one assumes that f/b/p have $3 billion of unsecured debt which they are willing to exchange for $15 stock, and that ggp will just pay off the remaining unsecureds in cash, that means that an additional 200 million shares would need to be issued to take out f/b/p.

if simon offers $20/share, then f/b/p could say they would trade their unsecured debt for $20/share which means that they would get 150 million shares.

if simon counters with $25/share, then f/b/p could say they would trade their unsecured for $25/share and get 120 million shares.

at some point, f/b/p will have a number in mind over which they do not want to trade unsecured debt for shares but i have to believe that number is north of $20-$25 share.

this might set up a nice bidding war and f/b/p can choose not to come up with any additional money so long as they are willing to accept less shares for their debt exchange.

with f/b/p saying they would like to proceed to documentation by next week, that will put a lot of pressure on anyone who wants to bid for ggp.

stay tuned as this reality show unfolds in front of our eyes.