you said: Chevron did not ever, at least from what I've observed, really give the 'true' value of its JDZ block, to the extent that it could ascertain it from its Obo-1 results.
Reply: But did Exxon?...remember, they bailed. Oh, and now Chevron may bail. And since when does Chevron give up Elephants? If it is a huge pool of oil...or gas...and Total can tie into Apco's pipeline...why couldn't Chevron? When did Chevron become production illiterates?
you said: Chevron clearly did not go this route, because they must have felt that the value of a tight holed secretive Block 1 would be worth MORE than what is gotten through a bidding war. It's the only logical explanation, but if true, then WHO would pay the secrecy 'premium', WHY would they pay to have such a premium, and WHEN would they then finally announce what is in Block 1?
Reply: 'secrecy premium' is the only logical explaination? Wheweeeboy! I've heard everything now.
you said: maybe they found some underground system or discovery which makes them think that a secretive Block 1 is worth the extra money.
Reply: What extra money? Did you hear something about extra money? And a secret underground system? Wow. This is getting better and better.
you said: So I envision that at some point Total had approached Chevron and said, DO NOT tell ANYONE what is down there, and in fact don't even drill more in Block 1 and in exchange we will pay you MORE than any bidder war outcome. It is an offer you cannot refuse.
Reply: Don't tell anyone...don't drill more? Really? And Exxon just said "We don't want any part of that huge payoff"? We're gone. And you really expect this to be believable? Hope Exxon's shareholders don't get wind of this...talk about massive lawsuits?
you said: ...then ERHC must realize that the price of keeping quiet is ($30 minus current share price) and therefore demand from Sinopec that if it is to agree to remain quiet, then Sinopec must pay at least that premium, let's say $35 a share at some point in the future.
Reply: Lets say you leave the bar...now! This goofy senerio is getting more crazy as it goes.
you said: But even with these assumptions and all of the logic surrounding them...
Reply: What logic...there is no logic. You are having a dream. But I'll say this... it's a whopper! And it was pretty funny...I guess.
you said: WHO would pay the secrecy 'premium'?....
Reply: No one. Zilch. Nada. There isn't one! Not IMHO anyway.
I'm stopping here with this response. I'm now convinced that the JDZ contains the biggest pool of oil mankind has ever seen...and it will allow Total to rule the world. Ha!
Badog
