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Re: Happycoins post# 2205

Friday, 03/05/2010 3:52:27 PM

Friday, March 05, 2010 3:52:27 PM

Post# of 2794
Happycoins...reverse splits, pre/post merger dilution.....

"Anyone think after this split they will dilute the shares making all of us bag holders seen it too many times before."

In almost every shell situation there is going to be some form of dilution (either pre or post merger), and that dilution will occur regardless of whether there is a reverse split. Unless a person/business purchases a large block of existing shares and moves a business/asset into the shell with no additional compensation or there is a voluntary share cancellation, there is no way of avoiding dilution in a shell.

What is important in determining the success/failure of a shell investment is the nature and extent of the dilution. There are two pathways of dilution that a company can follow: negative and accretive. Negative dilution basically increases the share count without really adding significant "value" to the shell/company. Accretive dilution increases the share count but in exchange for something of "value" (for example, shares in exchange for the assets of a business or a technology).

I have often stated in the past that an investor can't take a brush and simply paint every reverse split the same color. There is huge difference between reverse splits that are done so a company can sell some more shares in order to pay the light bill for another month, and reverse splits that are done to facilitate a RM acquisition or to uplist to a major stock exchange. Any one who doubts that probably hasn't been paying much attention to the world of China stocks where investors are actively looking for reverse splits. So VOIG's future from this point forward will be determined by whether the dilution will be largely accretive or negative.

As I mentioned in a previous post, I have been using a much more conservative share number for my own personal analysis of VOIG as a shell (probably at least 25-30M, if the promissary note was converted). There is always the chance that pre-split dilution could be higher than that, or the terms of the note/debt might have changed, but as long as that number is reasonably accurate, the average price I paid for VOIG (around .017) means I purchased a shell with a market cap around 500k.

Following the reverse split, I will own a shell with about a 300k float (again, using my conservative number). Low-float situations like that can have extremely explosive moves. So, I will hang onto my position and see what develops.

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