ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:330397, 12/05/04
12/01: (328785) (*COMMENT*)
So Zeev--- you think more upside tomorrow in the market because of the MSFT infusion of money?
(*END*)
Notr sure how it balances with a market qwhich is overextended.
12/01: (328902) (*COMMENT*)
So where does that put ya? Me, I'm short. :o)
(*END*)
Puts me at 48% cash....tomorrow I hope to dump at least some of my ARO at a nice profit, but on the other hand, if GIVN drops a little more, it will come back into the "fold". So that is about where I m staying for now.
12/01: (328927) (*COMMENT*)
Has the continuing move up changed your top target or time frame? Thanks Zeev.
(*END*)
No, I still expect a retrench to at least the mid 2000, maybe even lower, and then a run of about 200 to 300 Naz points from there with as a top of at least 2275 in the January/February time frame. There is an early August post (look at Kayaker's thread) where I laid out the rationale for the minimal 2275, and still leave the option open for above 2300.
12/01: (328929) (*COMMENT*)
ZEEV I'm at odds with you on cash. Deployed a bunch into funds as I am more bullish than I have been in a couple of years. Lower oil prices will result in adjusted higher projections by analysts and the semi's look ready. Event risk has been greatly diminished and baring any international sinkhole, we look ready to suck significantly more cash out of bonds into stocks.
(*END*)
That is what makes a market, but I still think we should not be surprised to see a top before the end of the week, maybe even early on tomorrow, and then a solid 100 Naz points decline to reliquify the market. I wish, however I knew how much of the MSFT dividend was already deployed (g), that is a nut I am not sure how to handle. The way I do handle it is buy only deep discounts like ARO yesterday and SYNA today (g), and take profits when offered.
12/01: (328940) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I've got multiple targets suggesting COMP 2175 and NDX 1630. The SPX also has targets at 1208 and 1226. The former is quite do-able. The latter would need lots of help. MSFT is looking very good here and might even move up to $28. Oracle is turning up, the SOX may hit 454, QCOM may hit 45.50 RUT is close to the 650 3-white soldier target and nearing another one at 657.
The thing is, until the SPX has a big day and at least hits 1208, I'm not ready to throw in the towel and call it a run.
I thought things might be getting toppy here as we neared these targets, but the MSFT wild card is hard to plug in.
We've got the INTC mid-quarter conference tomorrow after the close and jobs stuff on Friday.
Puts are also piling up at QQQ 39, making it likely any drop we get may be mitigated by that situation. I thought we'd drop to 1520 NDX from 1630, but I'm starting to get a bit edgy about that.
As for MSFT, if the dividend is paid on Dec. 2, my guess is most people won't have it show up in their accounts until Dec. 3 if it is paid electronically. The same should go for mutual funds and institutions.
(*END*)
Typically these dividends hit my account at midnight. I don't have any MSFT, but maybe someone who has can tell us. Furthermore, it is "immediate" cash, so people can buy and the cash will be there by settlement date, depending on broker 3 to 5 trading day. Some of that cash might, therefore already have been deployed.
12/02: (329711) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Time for Zeev to put the bearsuit away.
(Part 2)
Yup, sure, that reminds me of early August when Peteman was waiting for me to "capitulate" (and I was "fully loaded", 8/12 if memory serves) from my call for 2275 by January, we are not much more than 100 Naz points away...., but before it, we must relieve some of the extreme bullishness, IMTO, so the teddy bear and cautious stance stand. Cash will be in the 45% to 55% range (ended the day at 52% when a partial fill of the double SAM position occurred at $22.30, not a great gain on that one, I'll try and use the morning exuberance to get rid of the rest closer to $23, which will be barely even).
(Part 3)
Funny how that Peteman post signaled bottom
I remember it ... looking at AH tonight...now is the time to get the bear suit out and plan...lots of new faces should be an indication too.
(*END*)
We just made a new yearly high on the Naz yesterday, eclipsing the January high, I don't know how far the post breakout including the S&P) will take, but most internals are pointing to an over extended market. I would not short aggressively, however, because I still expect a strong run into the end of the year and January.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
