MrCash's NAZ Comp Ewave count
Cash,
The W1 to W5 count from the Oct '02 lows fits into one of my longer term counts.
The longer term count is open to interpretation. Most E-wavers agree the oct '02 lows was the orthodox low of Bear Wave A. I have as my main count the orthodox low as Sept '01. Bear Wave B could equally be counted as a triangle or expanded flat. There is a Fib time ratio of Bear A = 38% of Bear B. A Fib price ratio can be met if you consider Flat C = 1/3 of Bear Wave B. The end of Flat C would be in the area of Bear A4, a common consolidation area.
If the triangle count is chosen then wave e can be counted complete. NAZ Comp Wave e is just below the trendline of end of waves a and c, but the NDX 100 has clearly broken the line. Throwover is normal, but not required. Wave e zig = 2/3 wave e zag, a fib ratio.
So now there is a time and price convergence happening.
As far as the Dow Industrials go, I count the Oct '04 rally complete. The long term wave count I have for the Dow is completing Wave 5 (started in Oct '02) of the wave that started from the Great Depression. I completely disagree the pullback from the Year 2000 highs is motive. Waves overlap way too much. The pullback was shallow with respect to the rest of the world. The rally from the Oct '02 lows looks like a clear 5 wave sequence, as you argue exists in the NAZ.
The implication is a potential double truncation that should result in a big crash starting any day.
The wave counts for both NAZ and Dow are presently in phase for a turn lower.
The fundamentals are more in line with the onset of a devastating Bear Wave C, which favors a nearly complete triangle or flat over a half complete zigzag.
Low rate of savings
Struggling job market
Mounting debt
Lack of consumer pricing power
Continued growing anger toward the US by the world.
There is nothing in the gas tank and no gas station for miles.
