Rambus (RMBS)

[Threejack]

Re. So where is Rambus involved.?


calbiker,

Thanks for your odds-making opinion.

re: I give a 60% chance that PS3 uses XDR.

My unscientific impression is the popular press and investment community expect XDR to be used in PS3, although you and elixe caution otherwise, and Rambus has advised consistently there has yet to be an announcement by Sony about their memory choice for PS3.

As important, elixe's royalty calculations for PS2 suggest the impact on royalties is minor either way.

But because expectations are high it will be XDR, it is priced into the stock already, and probably valued higher than the reality. So, when the memory component is announced, would expect the stock to take a decent hit if it is not XDR.

re: There's probably a 80% chance that the Cell uses Redwood.

The reverse here is true, according to my gut. Most are focused on Rambus IP in the PS3; few expect Redwood to be used in every Cell implementation. So, if this is true, the stock will jump big should this news be announced and its implications understood.

Legitimately, we can surmise from elixe's PS2 royalty calculations the real brass ring is not likely the PS3, regardless of memory type, but instead Redwood in every Cell application, assuming Cell is a success and there are many applications on multiple consumer electronics, computing, and networking platforms.

So, your odds look good to me : )

Just my opinion.

Threejack