fawtsc - thanks for the info. That's a little scary.
snap - just for clarity: I'm not suggesting that we here on this board are "killing the milk cow". My suggestion was regarding the hypothetical scam that TATF might be running.
I think in a scam, there would be two basic modes of operation:
1. get as many people involved as possible, sign up a whole bunch of suckers and take as much money as you can from them while keeping up a good front - what I would call "milking the cow" - in other words, getting a steady income flow from new and repeat 'tree owners', word of mouth.
2. when people start to ask questions and things start to get a little hot, there would be an exit strategy. How do we get as much money as we can and then get away without getting caught? I would call that "killing the milk cow" - getting one last big payoff in a way that ends the operation
In order to keep the "milk" flowing, I would think TATF would want to present the operation as very successful, very professional, no hiccups. Just like Bernie Madoff. Year after year of steady, reliable, strong returns. Madoff saw his number and quality of investors grow year after year, so he always had new money to pay out when old investors asked for it.
TATF, however, has not kept up a good front. Information has been lacking, questions have been left unanswered. Investors are seeing farms where trees are not growing well or are not being cared for. TON have been very slow to come. The operation seems unprofessional and understaffed. That's not a good way to keep a steady stream of new investors. If it were a scam, my question would be "why?" TATF is such a great setup for a scam. The big payoff is 25 years down the road. 15-18 years in, very few people are yet expecting any significant payoff. Why not milk the cow for a few more years? If they started paying out small amounts of new money to old investors, this thing could really take off. Why quit?
Again, if TATF were a scam, the way things are moving now it seems like the buildup to an exit strategy. "we have to make one last big push to get new equipment. if we don't have new money now, all the money you already sunk into this will be for nothing. however, if we can get this equipment working, all your dreams of high IRR will come true." Perfect exit strategy. People shell out one more time, TATF gets their one last grab for millions, and leave town.
As we have agreed, the hypothesis doesn't fit quite right. Way too close for comfort, but not quite right.
TATF has dropped the ball enough that people who might consider putting more money in are looking for audits, guarantees, etc. That would even kill the potential for the big payoff.
