Hey Fed,
I kinda tried to tell you it might be premature to take a short position. Read the newsletter dated 2-25-10 on the astrocycle.net site.
I wouldn't short unless S&P breaks 1080. I said a similar thing last week that I wouldn't short unless the DOW broke 9900.
Other cycles are in play besides just the moon. This always comes about near trend changes, and when ever you see the triple moon. Think of the moon like a new technical indicator. You have to have confirmation with other things, especially trend line breaks.
Here's a quote:
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The SPX must hold Wednesday's lows near 1095 on Friday
The SPX failed to hold the lower channel near 1095 and fell to the November lows of 1085 before erasing most of the losses and adding to our suspicion that we are forming a right shoulder between 1085 and 1115 much like we did in November for the left shoulder and also much like the mid January top and highlighted in purple on the 10 minute charts below. The Ticks are getting overbought in many time frames suggesting the 1115 area will hold us back, but the Put/Call lines have stayed relatively high implying any pull backs from the overbought Ticks is not likely to break below 1085 either. The short term cycles are suggesting a mixed but mildly bullish day with the most strength in the morning and the weakest time in mid afternoon. A move back above 1105 should send us to the November highs near 1115, but it will now take a break of the November lows and breakout level of 1080-85 to turn the trend bearish and bring back the possibility of new lows by the 4 month cycle low in early March. The Breadth Pattern Matches are too few and mixed but my bias is bullish above 1095 for Friday.
5.5 day cycle Friday (high?) and early next Wednesday (low?)
The best fit over the last 30 days is the 5.5 day cycle which is part of the common series of cycles based on multiples of 11 and which are sub-harmonics of the 11 year Solar cycle. Many cycles like the 7 to 8 week, 4 week Moon cycle and short term 5.5 day cycle all point to a Full Moon and end of month high and the oversold Put/Call and white Trin lines we saw on Thursday can support that view, but the Tick lines are getting overbought again and suggesting a decline into the expected cycle low next Wednesday. The intraday pattern for the week broke down on Thursday with the very negative but brief reaction to the Jobless Claims report, and the expected rally to the 1115 area may be delayed until Friday and/or Monday. The 10 and 60 minute charts are not fully overbought yet suggesting a struggle between 1085 and 1115 much like we saw last November but with the indicators getting more overbought this time, and forming a right shoulder with the left shoulder of November. Since the first move up was 35 pts, a pull back to 1085 early this week followed by a 35 point rally would target the 1120 level and is a probable path for this week. This rebound of 10 days and 68 pts is a bit weaker than the comparably oversold rebound of 10 days and 84 pts we saw from the November lows, and we will most likely struggle with the 1115-20 resistance area like we did in November.
Trend is bullish but overbought for week ending February 26th
All indicators turned bullish from oversold but the Ticks, Slope and StochRSI are all getting very overbought suggesting a pull back from the expiration close which often see a 1% counter move to the expiration direction on Friday. The Put/Call and white Trin lines are not quite overbought and we will most likely rally once more to the 1115-20 area by the Full Moon and end of Month on Sunday. The most likely bearish count has Wave 1 completed on Friday the 5th with a drop of 106 pts in 3-4 weeks suggesting a Wave 2 back to 1120-30 and lasting a few weeks into late February before making deeper lows towards the 38% level from 2007 near 1014 in March for the 7 week and 4 month cycle low. The alternative bullish count is that we are now in the last Wave up from the March 09 lows that will take us to 1150-1170 into March, and possibly as high as 1200 if it lasts into April 2010.
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