New new major production will likely occur before 2013 at the earliest, causing a tungsten shortage that will support higher tungsten prices," Thompson said, forecasting that prices will increase to US$300 per mtu until new production is realized after 2013. "The suspension of production from the Cantung mine will further impede available tungsten supply."
"Caveats for our long-term price forecast for APT are continued robust growth in demand for tungsten in excess of 3%, specifically from China, and limited new high-grade supply, especially from current producing countries such as China, Russia, and Australia, all of which possibilities seem unlikely in the medium term."
Haywood asserted that the lack of new production has been noted by Asian tungsten mine operators, "promoting a spate of strategic agreements, offtake agreements, and acquisitions to support new development through an input of capital. The credit crisis and associated spate of market volatility makes the involvement of joint venture partners with the ability to finance projects a near necessity."
Meanwhile, Haywood also noted a problem with the U.S. Government tungsten stockpile. In January the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the Defense National Stockpile Center had 21,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate on hand or 46 million pounds, a reduction from the 30,000 tonnes reported in 2003. Year end estimates are 43 million pounds in 2008.
"Industry sources suggest that at least a third (14.2 million pounds) are either contaminated or of such poor quality rendering that portion un-saleable and unwanted which leaves some 28.6 million pounds available for industrial consumption," Thompson noted.
"The congressional mandate calls for 8 million pounds to be auctioned off each year, implying that the current stock pile will be exhausted in 3.5 years or 5.3 years if the entire stockpile was high quality," he concluded.
