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Re: opas60 post# 50

Thursday, 02/25/2010 2:29:26 PM

Thursday, February 25, 2010 2:29:26 PM

Post# of 696
opas60...speculation on share price after RM.....

"Any idea what'll happen with PPS afer the deal is closed ?"

I picked up another block of shares yesterday at 30 cents. Currently averaged in at a price under 24 cents/shr.

Trying to determine/guess what the share price might look like following a reverse merger is pretty difficult because of all the variables inherent in shell investing. Share structure of the deal, pre/post merger dilution, quality of merger company, promotion, old-fashioned luck, etc all play a role.

Just about anything and everything can happen in the world of shell investing: good shells can get lack-luster mergers or suffer unattractive pre/post merger dilution, ugly shells can suddenly become attractive thanks to voluntary share cancellations or debt forgiveness, etc., etc.

Outside of a RM deal involving some type of prominent/eye-catching domestic company, my "ideal" scenario with CCKH would involve a reverse merger with a quality Chinese company.

I mentioned previously that there have been some shells followed by IHUB members that have achieved pre-merger valuations of $9+ million (CCKH equivalent is $4). Just in the last week or so there have been two quality China reverse mergers in which the post-merger valuations of the shell shares is $7+ million. For example, following a pre-merger share cancellation the shell outstanding share number for APBS (China cemetary company, $4-5) is very close to CCKH's.

So while the success/failure of other shells/situations doesn't guarantee success/failure for CCKH, it is indeed fun and sometimes productive to speculate. You just never really know for certain which shell is going to be that one that turns into a huge winner. If CCKH does produce a 5-10+ bagger, it will be pretty nice to have a good position built before the move begins.



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