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Re: belmontx post# 1834

Wednesday, 02/24/2010 5:41:17 AM

Wednesday, February 24, 2010 5:41:17 AM

Post# of 3419
Belmo-

In the absence of many facts, we can all paint this picture however we want to. If I assume that the lack of communication and thinning proceeds shows bad motives and something to hide, the pieces fall into place easily to tell me that this could be a huge scam. If, instead, I assume that the Brunners are basically honest, hardworking people, everything points to stress, overwork, bad surprises, bad economy, unfortunate business decisions, and poor cash flow.

Everything you say is reasonable and makes sense in the context of negative/pessimistic assumptions. But, just like the optimism of the newbies (including me), it "assumes facts not in evidence" - for instance, the Brunners' status as "land tycoons".

The Brunners may have their names on many deeds in Costa Rica. But are those properties mortgaged? Can they be sold at a profit, or is the market down or soft? Do they see a rebound coming that makes them hesitate to sell at a low price? Are any non-tree-farm properties they own producing income, or are they well-sited investment properties that are currently sitting idle, worth less than the purchase price, while property taxes continue to drain whatever cash reserves the Brunners have? I have considerable equity in my own house on paper, but much of that would disappear if I tried to sell in the current market.

The only facts we have are the words TATF presents on their website (not saying their statements are factual, just that they exist), the contracts we have made with TATF, and any interactions we've had with TATF - or lack thereof. Even those facts are not very solid.

-schaef

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