Short Term Trading Member Forum

[mr_cash4]

it really bothers me that we are not seeing a deeper retrace into this presumed 5-w cycle low as NDX has only dropped 26 pts (1593-1567) yesterday, whereas the drops in the past used to be about 45-65 NDX pts (today also marks 24 trading days from the 10-w cycle low), so, we got some room to go timewise even though there is nothing bearish in the cyclical picture right now.

a similar thing happened after the 8/13/04 10-w cycle low as we got a drop of only 22 pts on 9/17 which was 24 trading days from the 10-w cycle low, and then rallied to 9/21 to slightly higher highs @ 26 TDs, and then sold off into 9/28/04 which most likely was the 5-w low and here we got a 64 pts drop and a very late arrival of the 5-w low at 31 trading days.

perhaps a similar scenario will play out this time, will see, good luck.