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Sunday, February 21, 2010 12:36:47 PM
I stare at the charts for hours and beat myself without mercy 'cause I know we as humans, just like the mice we subject to study, will respond to patterns. It's our nature to identify patterns that offer rewards. We repeat these patterns over and over because we win, over and over. Then one day they don't work.
This is the statistical/technical delusion of charting.
I like to think of a story I read as a kid- Moby Dick.
Quay-Quay a tatooed nar-do-well was thowing chicken bones accross the deck for two days as the boat was subdued in a mire. Then, one day, the pattern changed, of all the combinations, not that we might see, there was a deferance from norm that struck an epiphany in the eyes of an enlightened who might be sensitive.
Quay-Quay lifted his head and asked for the ship's carpenter to build a casket...one sealed against the tides of the sea. One that would be the life raft of the only surviver of the ship.
It is there....that change. If we can discover that moment, my brother/sisters.....chartists, the best of them are good 80% of the time.
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