I disagree with the theory that if the Brunners don't buy trees at half-price and resell, the market must therefore be bad. It's based on opportunity cost.
Consider that TATF's trees get far more than a 50% markup after planting - that's not a knock against anyone, it's just a fact. The Brunners make a significant portion of their money on the initial sale of the trees.
If they want to sell more trees, they will do a lot better by planting more or selling ones they already have than by reselling trees for others. Again, this isn't a complaint or me labelling this as evil, it's just a statement of fact.
So - if they typically spend (just throwing out a number) $50 to plant 100 trees and then they sell them for say $5000, then a $2500 investment could potentially generate 2500/50 = 50 x $5000 or $250000.
So let's compare:
option 1 - spend $2500 to plant 5000 trees - sell for $250000
option 2 - spend $2500 to buy back 100 trees - sell for $5000
Which way would you want to spend your $2500?
Even if the cost is $500 (not $50) per 100 trees planted and selling them 'only' yields a tenfold return, that still beats a twofold return hands down. Not to mention that, as Ab is quick to point out, if you are selling your trees, no matter how small the scale, you are a de facto competitor to TATF. If they buy and then sell your trees, that's one less sale of their own trees that they will generate.
I laugh every time I get that flyer from my local car dealer that says "We've been approached by a buyer and we suddenly have a great need for a whole lot of 2001 minivans". It's ludicrous to think that somebody is scouring the market and asking the dealer for 10-year-old used cars. So the dealer is not really out there searching for used cars. I know that the dealer has no need of my used car - what they want is to sell me a new car. They make lots more money on new cars, dealer incentives, etc. Sure, car dealers don't lose money on the used car, they turn a profit. But really, the margins are comparatively small - the biggest reason they are willing to buy back my old car is so they can sell me a new one. TATF doesn't have even that incentive.
So... is it a bad market now? Hard to say. I would guess it's far harder for TATF to sell trees today than it was 10 years ago. However, TATF is a fairly established name in the tree market, and it's a market that should be growing. There are fewer investment dollars out there to chase right now, and obviously TATF is losing a lot of goodwill. However, I think the number of potential investors is probably still growing fairly rapidly, as people are more interested in environment-friendly investments. There is also a lot of dissatisfaction with or fear of traditional investments - low returns, market crashes and continued unsettling economic news have certainly sent a lot of people in new investment directions.
