Zeev, your comments on this Book-to-Bill projection? I recollect last month you thinking there would be better numbers than projected in this article. If this is correct shouldn't the semi-equip stocks be in for more dumping? AK
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IC-equipment book-to-bill to hit 0.77 for July and August
Semiconductor Business News
(08/19/02 09:42 p.m. EST)
SAN JOSE -- The worldwide book-to-bill ratio for semiconductor equipment fell to its lowest level in six months, from a healthy 1.15 in June, to a mere 0.77 for July, according to new figures from VLSI Research Inc. late today.
IC-equipment makers are not expected to fair [sic] any better in August, as the book-to-bill ratio is projected to once again hit 0.77 for the month, according to VLSI Research in San Jose.
And the June ratio was also revised downwards from 1.24 to 1.15 as shipments and bookings came in higher than originally expected, the firm said.
Worldwide equipment billings amounted to $2.39 billion, while bookings were at $1.85 billion in July. Of the total billings in July, $1.44 billion were for wafer-processing equipment, $460 million were for test and related equipment, $190 million for assembly, and $290 million for service and spares.
It was a bleak month. The July ratio is the lowest of the last six months and is down to the level of December 2001, according to VLSI Research.
“Absolute bookings levels have been increasing steadily since January, but have not gained the momentum needed to power a strong recovery,” according to the firm. “This is due to the soft end demand for electronics and sluggish chip prices. In addition, the U.S. economy weakened in the second quarter with GDP growth coming in at an anemic 1.1%,” it said.
“To make matters worse, the stock market crash has wiped out confidence throughout the supply chain up to the consumer. The crash has literally frozen order activity in July as companies held back investment plans,” according to VLSI Research.
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[For (background) reference, following is a 7/17/02 press release from SEMI.]
Correction: 2005 growth percentage - SEMI Announces Mid-Year Consensus Forecast for Chip Equipment Industry
Semiconductor Equipment Companies Expect $22.8 Billion Market in 2002
SAN JOSE, Calif., July 17, 2002 -- The leading manufacturers of semiconductor equipment expect sales to decline 19 percent this year from the $28 billion posted in 2001 according to the mid-year edition of the SEMI Capital Equipment Consensus Forecast, released here today by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) at the annual SEMICON® West exposition.
Survey respondents anticipate the industry to sell $22.8 billion of new chip manufacturing, testing and assembly equipment in 2002. The forecast indicates that, as the capital equipment market upturn strengthens, the market will grow 29 percent in 2003, to reach $29.5 billion; and 23 percent in 2004 to $36.2 billion. Survey respondents see growth in the cyclic market flattening in 2005.
"Given the severity of business conditions in the overall economy and especially the information technology sector, it comes as no surprise that the consensus forecast shows another drop in the worldwide market for capital equipment in 2002," said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. "However, the good news is that survey participants are positive about growth prospects for the next two years. This would seem to indicate that the downturn is bottoming out and that the industry will return to its historically high double digit growth rates in 2003 and 2004."
The SEMI Consensus Forecast includes input from 50 of the trade association's member companies in the United States, Europe, Asia and Japan. The forecast results are based on data collected between May and June 2002 by the SEMI Industry Research and Statistics department. Responding companies represent more than 70 percent of the total sales volume for the global semiconductor equipment industry.
