Wednesday, February 17, 2010 9:04:41 PM
I dunno fed,
looking at all the charts and TA, including the moon it looks like we actually might get a fullmoon high on the 26th. Remember the moon phases reverse sometimes, and you have to use TA together with the moon.
We have a double-top breakout on the P&F yesterday. MACD is giving a strong crossover. I think if we get resistance it will be closer to the 11,000 mark (11,150 is currently the weekly 200 ma).
Overall, I wouldn't make any long term bets on what the broader market will do.
Scenario 1: 11,150 high on 2-26, then a wave down, then it breaks dma in March.
Scenario 2: By feb 28th, We rally back to 10550-10600 and we don't break the top of the daily Ickimoku cloud.
Scenario 3: We stay capped where we are and either trade sideways or roll over. Key support area is 10180, 9910, ~9000.
In any case, I wouldn't short the market unless MACD turns down considerably and rolls over. The market would really have to break 10050 at the earliest.
Right now the setup looks more bullish; but again we are still in a transition zone so hard to say.
--- To me scenario 1 is looking most likely.
--- Of course we could trade sideways, but the chart doesn't look that way to me.
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