Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

WMT and TGT E-wave

WalMart and Target and target are the two biggest retailer in the industry, so studying these two is a good representation of the entire industry.

Neither is in a good position for going long.

TGT started mulit-year wave 5 in Oct '02 at $24.90.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=TGT,uu[w,a]wacayyay[df][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12....

Multimonth wave 1 from Oct '02 to early Jan '03 $24.90 to $37.10
Multimonth wave 2 from early Jan '03 to early March '03 $37.10 to $25.60
Multimonth wave 3 from early March '03 to early June '04 $25.60 to $47.40
Multimonth wave 4 from early June '04 to August '04 $47.40 to $40.03
Multimonth wave 5 from early August '04 to 3 waves done $40.03 to all time highs

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=TGT,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12....

There is potentially another 2 or 3 dollars of upside for TGT in the next two weeks followed by $5 to $10 pullback.


WMT has only recently broken out of a multiyear wave 4 triangle that began in Dec '99 and finished in Aug '04 at $51.08!!! (you may need to adjust chart settings)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=wmt&time=&freq=

Since then there looks to be 3 waves up

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=wmt,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12....

Weekly wave 1 from Aug 9 '04 to Aug 16 '04 $51.08 to $54.97
weekly wave 2 from Aug 16 '04 to Sept 22 '04 $54.97 to $51.10 right should of inverted head and shoulder.
weekly wave 3 from Sept 22 '04 to presently in daily wave 4 $51.10 to ???

Alternatively, weekly wave 3 could be a series of wave 1 and 2's. This is the most bullish.

Price action following a triangle is usually a sharp rise in price the width of the triangle. WMT's trianlge width is $27.50. This gives a theoretical target of $78. This is quite a jump in share price considering TGT's wave is nearly done. Undermining the surge is the flat holiday sales for WMT yet the overall retail sector made sales gains of 10%. If WMT drops below $54.38 daily wave 4 will have overlapped daily wave 1. There is some flexibility counting waves of individual companies when it comes to overlapping waves. A drop below $51.91 would be too much of a drop to be flexible.