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Sunday, November 28, 2004 10:36:44 AM

Re: ONEBGG post# 449

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Consolidating my notes from the Expo for any who wish to review. Also hoping to hear other folks experience.

The first seminar I went to was on 18 Nov, done by Fidelity on the State of the market. Disclaimer- These are from quickly jotted notes, so may miss some parts.

They use a "Market Scoreboard" to determine where to play. On the fundemantal side they look at earnings, valuation, and the business cycles. On the technical side they use trend, cycle, breath, and sentiment.

They expect new highs in the S&P around 2008 (target mentioned was 1700). One thing they noticed was hedge funds starting going long this year.

Look at P/E of 15 has "fair Value". Also, earnings momentum seems to top out around 23%

Expect a temporary top in the S&P of 1250 mid Feb 2005.

Bull markets tend to run in 48 month cycles. They stated that cycle started late 2002.

For sentiment- they look at population stats. Basically, they see savers at age 25 and up. They see spender as folks under 25- so trends can be determined by population differences.

They still like small caps, even though they are up 48% (looks through the S&P 600).

They expect 2005 to trade sideways to up to 5%, with 2006 being a better year. Expect some volume pick up late Mar 2005.

Interesting stat- When Republicans are in charge- market tends to rise 6%, when Dems are in control, market tends to fall 2%.

They look at oil falling to support in the mid-40ish area. They also mentioned the China v.s. commodities, and like the potential.

They expect fed rates to go to 3-4% next year. They also stated bond yeilds are getting attractive again.

On the Nazdaq, they look at capital expenses as a indicator to looking at those stocks. They see increase CAPEX, so feel the nas is bullish. Along with that, they see the dollar bearish for another 5 years, and have a target on the Euro at 1.40. They also mentioned that gold tends to follow the EU, so look like not much upside.

They feel the falling dollar is good for foreign investments, and also stated that consumer debt is a non-issue to the market. The reason is, a lot of the debt is banked against real assets with ownership of homes up 70%. So, when comparing assets to liabilities, there is no real rise in debt.

See real estate as bullish, supply is not outpacing demand. Mortgages are about 10% of disposable income, so expecting rising real estate prices for another 5 years.

Commodities ans small caps, bullish for another 15 years.

Hope this starts up some discussion <g>.

Seminar #2
Price targets using Fibonacci (the Da Vinci Code of the Markets)

This was given by Robert Miner, and I found that most of this was above my level of experience, lol. But here is what I did get out of it:
The use of oscallators determines momentum. This is the oberbought/oversold condition of a stock.

The Elliot wave theory tells us to watch for the 3d and 5th wave for long positions. usually a stock will move in 38%, 50%, and/or 62% patterns, but most times there will be an extreme of 78.6% for a top/bottom (this is where you put your limits at).

external retractments- look for 127% and 162%

On the wave theory, from wave 1 to wave 5 the pps moves 100%

Based on what his calculations, he sees the S&P topping at 1250 (same as Fidelity). Look at the Oct and 13 Aug for a break down.

Use the weekly charts to see long term trends. Use intra-day charts to see any bullish changes. Execute a stop one tick below a low.

Reccomends using only one ocsallator. he have a chart up the showed 13/8/5/5

Trend show rising interest rates for the next 20yrs.

Gold is in the 5th wave and sees multi month decline ahead. Top for gold is up to $462. Based this on the 24-27 week trend. This week is the 27 week. Retraction may take us back to the '99 price.

Seminar #3
Next next one was Short term trading success using momentum indicators. Linda Raschke from Cybertrader was the speaker.

She started off talking about supply and demand imbalances. This is what moves stocks and determines a trend.

Momentum proceeds price, so watch for volume increases. All trends end in a climatic fashion. Look for a long candle to identify the climax. Trend begin on low volume. Watch for a clamatic change, followed by low volume, followed by increasing momentum.

Use weekly charts to time the trend.

Look for 3 impulse moves in the direction of the trend. Follow through with a,b,c trend theory.

She stated you must know the expectations of the trade before you enter it. Be positive of the course. Interestingly, she also stated she doesn't use trailing stops. She see trade trade, then executes what she knows the stock is going to do. No second thoughts that way.

Use momentum highs to predict price trends.

I'm sure these notes would make more sense with the charts they used, lol

Seminar #4
Trading on target by Adrienne Toghraie

Her work focuses on mentoring at a psycological level. I found her to be very good at explaining the element of balance when you "work" at the trading game. She has 8 books out and I plan to buy "Trader's Secrets" next time I get to the book store.

Element of balance- need to center in and focus on information. Understand and interpret what you see. Learn to transfer your training (knowledge) to focus on trading.

Make sure you have the right psychologygoing into the trade. Follow your rules and leave emotion at the door. You cannot have trading balance and focus if the cat is crying in the background.

Find a special ingreident in your trading receipe for success. Everyone makes mistakes- learn from it. Don't dwell on the negative aspects of the mistake. If 3M did- we would not have Post Notes <g>.

Find a way to improve on a strategy or Idea. When you focus on a shooting target- focus on the center of the bulleye- not the center of the target.

Common resources in successful traders:
A desire to learn, most are self taught, they read a lot, look inward for self-growth, and tend to model the best

Common qualities:
Movivated, persistant, flexible, and goal-oriented. Also most are very disiplined and display competitiveness.

One of the most impoertant things for success is spiritual development. Tune-in to your ineer self and find peace. If you are comfortable with yourself, you can focus on the art of trading.

Sometimes liability type resources can be a good thing. Ever been called obsessive complusive? Tenacity and persistance goes along with that label. Again, don't let negatives force you to lose your balance. If you do, you will most likely stumble- and that could effect your trading.

Find good positive anchors. You cannot be successful unles you have them. If your spouse tells you to get a real job because he/she doesn't understand what you are doing in the market, most likely that will be a distraction, and your trading will suffer. Those that have a good anchor in family, or freinds will be more successful (I hope BTS helps in this area for all of us)

Another key is to have a course of action. Have a business plan, deleop/test the system, keep it simple, coach/mentor the psychologial aspects, make a choice, follow the rules, focus on the goal, affirm success beliefs, develop intution, and chart it.

One other key aspect she touched on was prosperity consicousness. Learn to give something back to society. This will be the greatest reward for you.

Seminar #5
I attended an open forum early on Saturday. Moderated by Donald Bright. Most questions were way out beyond my limited brain capibility, but did get the feel that the 8 big boys answering question were bullish on the future direction of the markets. David Nasser. a hedgefund manager stated he has covered his shorts and starting to go long on positions. I cut out of there early, and went to Afshin Taghechian's How to detiermine and implement a winning trading system.

This class was geared more towards the day-trader. He runs traders international, a school for traders. His approach is simple to understand and I liked what he was saying (good salesman?).

Anyway, 3 elements needed to trade: Capital, plan, and management skill.

Chose a trading system that fits your personality, a person the trades stocks may not be good at options or commodities.

On your business plan- Keep it simple

He looks for double tops and bottoms, and buys accordingly. If he sees a double bottom- buy, double top- sell. Also, look at direction- use lower low and higher high to determine.

He stated to use only one oscalltor for convergerances. This will help confirm what the candlestick pattern is telling you.

Here he put up a chart of the S&P. He likes to play it for 2 point scalps. When he enters a trade, his limit is two points below (example- enter at 1180, stop is 1178). His exit is the same- 2 points (usually sells half if the trend looks to go higher). The short term gain has a higher probability for profits, but playing the longer trend has the potential of better profits.

He looks for candles to signal buy and sells, this lets him know whether to sell half or all on the trade.

You want to set goals- once you get your goal for the day, take the rest of the day off. Don't burn yourself out try to get that extra buck.

I probably didn't explain this one very weel, but I did enjoy listening to him, and if I was to attend any course, his would be at the top of my list.

Seminar #6

I went to the expo and checked out a couple oil/gas companies that had booths. Royale Energy and Lyle something. Neither impressed me, so I took off the rest of the day, lol. I was in Vegas you know <g>. Tried to hook up with some of the Ihub folks, but missed them. Ended up spending a couple hours at a blackjack table (made about $50 per hour <g>).

Got up early and attended Toni Hansen's Five technicial signals you should not trade without. She was not a very good speaker (dull monotone voice). Started TradingFromMainStreet.com a few ago, and she stated she had about 8 years experience in the markets.

She started off with trend delevopment. Basic elliot wave theory. Looks for 3 wave, and times the 2-3 wave, as this is the wave to make the most money on. Looks for support/resistance using a 20 MA. Also watches for fib targets (33/66/100%) as an indicator to the trend. She staed to never base a decision on one indicator or method. Find a comfirmation before entering a trade.

Volume was the second signal- volume preceeds price. Rising volume moves the pps, so trade accordingly. low volume shows a lack of interest.

Pace was the next signal, but she lost me here. Maybe someone more experienced could clarify?

Reversal/Correction periods: This had to do with the actual time of day. Most common correction or reseversals are signals at 15 and 45 minutes after the hour in the morning. In the afternoon, look for them at the top and bottom of the hour. At 2p.m., look for the mid-day base to break up or down, and at 1500 look for reversals due to the bond market closing.

Break in trend was the last indicator. She looks for a break in trend based on less the 1.5. Example if a trend is 3 days long, look at day 5 for a base. The trend may continue if the trend isn't broken.


Last seminar-
Steve Nison did a ditty on candlestick charting. Mostly it was a salesman type feeling, but did get a few things out of it <g>.

He started off with some background on candlesticks (as far back as the 1600s), and what they tell you about price and momentum.

He doesn't read the candles on weekly charts, but uses intra-day or daily charts to read the candle. Time frame is usually 2-3 weeks.

What he looks for is early indication of reverse signals. This will help preserve capital when entering a trade.

Basics of candles- The retengular shape of a candle is called a body, and lines are shadows. The body compares the open to the close (if you have a higher close than the open, you get a high candle, red if it closes down). Shadows show the market high and low for the session (high may have been $1.22, but the close was $1, so the shadow show you where the potential might be). If the market opens and closes at the same price, this forms a Doji. A doji implies that the market is tired, and a reverse might be coming.

If the bodies are getting smaller, they form spinning tops. A spinning top signals the trend is losing momentum. The shadow is important for showing strength and weakness

A Hammer (small body with long shadow under it) is a bullish signal, showing the market is groping for a bottom or support. A Shooting star (small body with long shadow over it) is a bearish signal showing the stock has reached resistance.

When using candles, also use western indicators to confirm the pattern. This helps preserve your capital.

Engulfing patterns- this is a small candle engulfed by a bigger one. A white candle engulfed by a black one is a bearish signal.

Watch for support becoming resistance, and resistance becoming support- this shows a change in polority. Example, if resistance was $1, and the price closes at $1.10- the new support is at $1- base you charting on that when looking at the potential of stops/sells.

Western T/A tools help comfirm the candles, like double tops and bottoms. He uses western signals for determining targets, like the fibs to determining points or %percentage targets.

Use an intra-day chart for support areas when the daily chart shows wide support/resistance. But, ignore any Dojis on the intra-day.

The last thing he talked about was a crack and snap. This works when support line is broken (cracked), and then "snaps" back above the support line. This work best with a morning star pattern. Look at the last three candles- If you get a long candle with shadows, followed by a short candle with shadows, and ending with a long candle with no shadows, you get a morning star.

Anyone want to expand on that <g>.

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