China Yida Holdings (CNYD)

[redman_2014]

bunky,

It is tough to compare the two, but to answer your question they are presently my top two holdings so I don't think you can go wrong with either company.

CCME - has a more focused business model, with projected revenue and profit growth greater than CNYD. It might normally be considered risky to have all your eggs in one basket, but they have the exclusive license from the government which protects them from competition for the three years, and then long-term contracts with the bus operators will continue to protect them for another 3-5 years after that. Based on everything I have read and some calculations I have done I think they will be able to achieve very close to their $80+ million make-good target without the help of whatever acquisition is coming down the pipe. It's more a gut instinct based on industry trends and a sense that management is conservative with their estimations instead of verifiable proof.


CNYD - joenatural mentioned them being a 'mini Disney', and I think that fits very well in describing their potential. They have a nice diversified revenue base involving three different streams, and they are all complimentary to one another. ab3t mentioned to me that they are projecting $7.5 million from their train segment, and I didn't include any revenue in my estimations because I was unaware of management putting a number on it for 2010. That moves my estimates upwards another $3+ in net income, or another $0.15/share. So now we are looking at around $2.20/share for 2010, with 'I believe' significant upside surprise potential coming from Yunding. I don't know how to quantify the competitive strengths they have with their television station, but their tourist attractions seem to be rock solid, and their train segment is an exclusive agreement.

All-in-all I think their risk/reward ranking is similar with present information.

I hope this helped.


-Adam