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Re: a1derfullife post# 1665

Thursday, 02/04/2010 10:21:12 AM

Thursday, February 04, 2010 10:21:12 AM

Post# of 3419
1derfull,

noticed the same phrase that you pointed out in #1665

I'm fairly recent to the board so my perspective may not be as clear as some of you who have been in for the long haul. I've been getting significantly more/faster communication from TATF recently (last few weeks), including this latest broadcast e-mail.

It may be my short-term view that makes me feel this way, but it seems like TATF is hearing the rumblings and trying to soothe the disgruntled investors on this particular board. There are answers to some of our recent significant questions - e.g., where did all the money go? Their answer: They have huge capital holdings but no cash - their business plan didn't anticipate expensive production equipment for value-add. (and so they need us to buy more trees)

Looking at it in the best possible way, I might think that they were seeing the light at the end of the tunnel with new production capacity coming, at the end of a couple of difficult years of sitting on a growing mountain of fairly worthless lumber with a huge backlog of thinning commitments. If this capacity were a real new hope of starting to churn through the backlog, I could see them having renewed interest in following up on e-mails, etc.

Looking at it in a pessimistic light, I could see this as trying to silence the criticism before it gets too deafening and make a last big cash grab. Doesn't this seem a little bigger? Bigger discounts, older trees, and a plea for help to put us over the hump. Maybe the stream of new investments is starting to dry up.

In either case, I feel like things are coming to a head, but maybe that feeling is by design. They have said they are shifting from new plantings to care. They are promising new production capacity and a new era of meeting thinning commitments. All they need is a few more bucks and then the gusher of money will start to flow. That has all the earmarks of a con. "what's a couple more thousand dollars - you are already in to the hilt - if it just takes that little bit more to make it pay off".

Unfortunately, if this is a real business with a real capital need, it would probably look the same. It could be looking and walking like either duck.

Not to be US-centric, but did anybody else get the feel that the e-mail today was written primarily by a person for whom English is a second language? Not sure if that matters, could be mostly written by staff and then Brunners add/modify a bit. That would not be unexpected.
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