techcharter, lol, I am a fromer EW trader now in 12-step program (on about step 10), and have switched to using Hurst Cycles because IMHO there are far more accurate for trading purposes that EW.
therefore, usually I try to refreain from making EW comments or even thinking in terms of EW when looking at charts because it just messes up my trading, but haven't completely kicked out of my system quite yet (lol, hence on step 10 of 12), so here is my two cents re. EW:
IMHO, the decline in DJIA from 2000-2003 is clearly a triangle & most likely wave 4, and I think that you agree with that; furthermore, imho we are currently in wave 5 up from Oct-02 low , I think that you will agree with that as well. Therefore, since wave 3 is extended, then if wave 5 = wave 1, the upside target is about DJIA 11,550 - just under DJIA's all-time high, and that could possibly constitute your final "orthodox" top.
but - who is to say that this is only wave 5 of 1 of 5 and NOT 5 of 5??? meaning that we still have waves 2, 3, 4 and 5 before the "ultimate" top is reached by DJIA? R.N. Elliot predicted 60 years ago that the "ultimate" top in DJIA is going to occur in year 2012 - so, who am I to argue with R.N. Elliot?
IMHO, we are bullish until proven otherwise, and it would pay off more to just keep buying the corrective waves down (until proven otherwise) instead of trying to short the presumed "ultimate" tops because calling the exact top is (1) EXTREMELY hard to do, and (2) kind-of pointless anyway because IF the final DJIA top arrives in the near future, shorting the exact top is going to be irrelevant because then the bear market is going range for years (decades??), giving plenty of opportunity to short the market.
as Marty Schwartz told Robert Prechter back in late 1980s "Why do you keep trying to call the top???? Just wait for the top to arrive, and then tell your subscribers that we have topped." ("Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Day Trader" by Martin Schwartz) - exactly the point - IMHO, trade with the trend (which is UP), and then after you are certain that the top is in, turn bearish and start shorting the heck out of the market.
and sadly, that's exactly what happened to Prechter as he (correctly) truned bearish ahead of 1987 crash but then stayed bearish ever since missing what is probably the biggest bull market in the history (when taking into the account Nasdaq/NDX/SOX and not just DJIA).
again, just my $0.02, good luck.
