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Copper’s Down, Next Test for Market: Philly Semis.
By Tiernan Ray
Copper’s futures are sounding an alarm, note our friends at Asbury Research. They’d warned a week ago that copper futures prices were a key indicator for overall market health, arguing that it would important for copper to stay in a support range of $3.23 to $3.27 per pound.
But copper’s broken through that support level, falling 4 cents today to $3.05 for the February futures contract. During the last week, Dow Transports have fallen 155 points, they add, and the S&P has fallen 3.3%.

The next crucial test of equity investor enthusiasm, writes Asbury, is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. The SOX tends to lead the tech sector, and techs tend to lead the broader market.

The SOX has broken down in the face of resistance at 337, they say, will it stay at or near a support level at 332? The SOX is at 314 today. (I would add that the Semiconductor HLDR Exchange Traded Fund (SMH) follows pretty closely the SOX.) As Asbury concludes:

How the SOX responds to this potentially bullish near term environment over the next several days will be seen as an important indication of whether the mid January decline in the US stock market continues from here, or if its larger 2009 uptrend resumes.

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/01/29/coppers-down-next-test-for-market-philly-semis/
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