It's been many months since I last posted on IH, or viewed what's happening here, for that matter. Good to see so much activity.
GNVC's finally moved in the manner I'd been expecting for some time, but I believe it's still easy to make a case that it's still very under valued.
Look at where we were before ASCO in 2007. The stock was approaching $5, excitement about what was to be presented had nearly everyone saying we'd easily blast through $5, but the presentation at ASCO left places where questions could be asked, and not well answered. I believe today we realize those questions, answered or not were meaningless, people are clearly living longer on the drug, and perhaps even being cured because of its use, in conjunction with successful resectioning of the tumor, if you listen to those who know Richard Jordan. You can't say cure for at least 5 years cancer free, but we appear to have some people who are at least half way there who couldn't have done it without TNFerade.
We're now approaching 3 years since that ASCO, I believe we're that much closer to Approval, yet the price though moving up dramatically, still lags the price then.
Now let's add a tremendous new partnership for a preclinical drug with Novartis. Over $200 million in Milestone Payments and royalties that escalate with sales, when is the last time you heard these sort of numbers for a drug partnered while in preclinical development.
Finally lets add the fact that we have other trials going for Malaria, FMD, and AIDS Vaccines that are all funded by others and in the time since ASCO 2007, all trials continue, funding has either been sustained or increased. To put it another way, none of our products have yet failed to perform. It's virtually unheard of that all drugs developed by anyone are all approved, and I'm not suggesting that will happen here, but to date, things are certainly working well enough to have development continue.
Where could GNVC go this year. I know people who'll say a ten bagger from where we are is possible, while I'll agree it is, I'll say it can only happen if two things happen. The first thing is a partnership that answers the question on how quickly an FDA approved commercial manufacturing plant for TNFerade can be built, as well as impressing investors by it's payment and royalty structure to GNVC. The second thing is a clear understanding of the game plan for approval. I'm not saying it must happen on 184 data, but it must be clear that it will be achieved in a timely way. If the data shows values that are clearly within the criteria for approval at 276 events, even if they don't quite make approval at 184 events, I think approval is clearly in the cards, a question in my mind is, does the DSMB say, because of the other data for Secondary Endpoints, GNVC and it's partner should go for approval while the trials continues, or do they say the trial simply should continue. If early approval is to be sought, $30 or more becomes very achievable, if not, it's doable just as it has been for DNDN and HGSI, it's just not guaranteed by any means.
Personally I'd be thrilled with anything in double digits and as an Optimist, I certainly believe that's not only possible, but probable. In fact, depending on the terms of the partnership for TNFerade, that could be all that's necessary to reach that level.
One other thing, another poster identified the fact that in conjunction with Homeland Security, Novartis is developing a new, state of the art facility for making vaccines. I really know little about what they're doing, but if nothing else, this sounds like a natural for producing the FMD Vaccines that GNVC has developed in conjunction with H.S.
Could Novartis ultimately partner with GNVC for many vaccines, certainly possible. I hope they aren't looking to acquire them, but wouldn't mind if they continue to add to their position if they also do additional partnerships. I frankly believe that a company like Novartis would actually make more money owning say 20% of GNVC and a partnership share of most drugs then they'd make if they did acquire the company.
Just one other thing, the investors and Institutions who'll make the most money in GNVC won't invest until the stock is near or approaching $5 as they operate under rules or self regulation that prevents it. They'll make the most money, but we that don't sell to them will by far make the biggest percentage gains. Don't let these Institutions buy your shares cheap. You may wish to trade some as $5 or more is achieved, but don't get out and give them the really big dollar increases. In the time I've been in GNVC, the 60 cent gain yesterday was the biggest I've seen. In the future, days where the stock goes up ten times that much are possible. I plan to be here when they happen, will you.
Gary
