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Sunday, January 24, 2010 1:15:21 PM
I have a Rainmakers Hunch.......Not one word of this on CNBC OR ANYWHERE ELSE BUT HERE....Here's what I'm watching right now. Nowhere on web is anyone talking about this. It's not a shocking jolt like September 08 crash was....this is a sneakier harder to pick up move imho. It starts not with a Bang but a Whimper.
My Hunch:
Shorts are mobilizing for an attack on the castle. For the last 10 months every time shorts made a move Helicopter Ben crushed the shorts with another move by the FED. These were largely monetary policy moves which directly helped the Banks and Big Financials.
Why SRS....for last year everyone been saying next shoe to drop would be Commercial real estate because of all Commercial paper coming sue in 2010 with no way to refi it....If this happens, SRS which ran to $300 during last crash....sitting close to it's all time low of $6.90, seems like the spot.
Why not SKF.....banks balance sheets are a lot healthier than the REIT's right now. REIT's have a lot of paper coming due. Talk if Obama's bank plan goes through Commercial spreads will be huge making refi's of this paper impossible.
Here's the dilema it's a double barrel conundrum.
1)Obama is going after the bankers trying to break up the financials.
2)Helicopter Ben under fire might not keep his job after this week.
Shorts realize FED can't help the banks right when Obama is going after them and Ben is fighting for his job. That's why I think the shorts are mounting up.....they attack in packs so things could get ugly this week. Spike in VIX shows fear in markets is rising dramatically. Fear is Fuel for shorts. I hate to admit it but if I'm right, shorts picked the perfect spot to make a move
One additional thought....when shorts push, the bulls are supposed to push back. Every dumb ass advisor on CNBC Friday was telling people to wait until things fall further and retest their 200 day MA's. Danger here is like a toxic snowball of fear....this will give shorts a chance to pick up steam before longs push back. For first time in 9 months I'm nervous being long the market. Figured it was time to hedge with some SRS.
Bernanke second term in doubt-Reuters– Fri Jan 22, 6:52 pm ET
Democratic aides said a vote is expected on Bernanke sometime next week, though one has not yet been scheduled and it was unclear when, or if, it would be.
Noting the uncertainty of Bernanke's fate, one senior aide said: "I believe there will be the votes to confirm him. But it's going to be very close."
Stocks sink again on Obama bank pushback
Stephen Bernard and Tim Paradis / Associated Press
New York -- Stocks suffered their fourth sharp drop in five trading days as investors caved to growing anxiety about President Barack Obama's plans to restrict big banks and earnings reports that just aren't good enough.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 217 points Friday, having lost 552 points, or 5.2 percent, over the past three days. Over the past five trading days, the Dow has fallen 537 points, having gained 115 points on Tuesday.
The drop gave the Dow its worst week since the index hit a 12-year low in March.
VIX volatility/FEAR spiking last two trading days
IYR broke down below the 50 day MA so easily Friday, uptrend channel broke down for first time since July.
SRS above 50 day for first time in forever.....more importantly CMF went positive. Money flowing back into short side.
My Hunch:
Shorts are mobilizing for an attack on the castle. For the last 10 months every time shorts made a move Helicopter Ben crushed the shorts with another move by the FED. These were largely monetary policy moves which directly helped the Banks and Big Financials.
Why SRS....for last year everyone been saying next shoe to drop would be Commercial real estate because of all Commercial paper coming sue in 2010 with no way to refi it....If this happens, SRS which ran to $300 during last crash....sitting close to it's all time low of $6.90, seems like the spot.
Why not SKF.....banks balance sheets are a lot healthier than the REIT's right now. REIT's have a lot of paper coming due. Talk if Obama's bank plan goes through Commercial spreads will be huge making refi's of this paper impossible.
Here's the dilema it's a double barrel conundrum.
1)Obama is going after the bankers trying to break up the financials.
2)Helicopter Ben under fire might not keep his job after this week.
Shorts realize FED can't help the banks right when Obama is going after them and Ben is fighting for his job. That's why I think the shorts are mounting up.....they attack in packs so things could get ugly this week. Spike in VIX shows fear in markets is rising dramatically. Fear is Fuel for shorts. I hate to admit it but if I'm right, shorts picked the perfect spot to make a move
One additional thought....when shorts push, the bulls are supposed to push back. Every dumb ass advisor on CNBC Friday was telling people to wait until things fall further and retest their 200 day MA's. Danger here is like a toxic snowball of fear....this will give shorts a chance to pick up steam before longs push back. For first time in 9 months I'm nervous being long the market. Figured it was time to hedge with some SRS.
Bernanke second term in doubt-Reuters– Fri Jan 22, 6:52 pm ET
Democratic aides said a vote is expected on Bernanke sometime next week, though one has not yet been scheduled and it was unclear when, or if, it would be.
Noting the uncertainty of Bernanke's fate, one senior aide said: "I believe there will be the votes to confirm him. But it's going to be very close."
Stocks sink again on Obama bank pushback
Stephen Bernard and Tim Paradis / Associated Press
New York -- Stocks suffered their fourth sharp drop in five trading days as investors caved to growing anxiety about President Barack Obama's plans to restrict big banks and earnings reports that just aren't good enough.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 217 points Friday, having lost 552 points, or 5.2 percent, over the past three days. Over the past five trading days, the Dow has fallen 537 points, having gained 115 points on Tuesday.
The drop gave the Dow its worst week since the index hit a 12-year low in March.
VIX volatility/FEAR spiking last two trading days
IYR broke down below the 50 day MA so easily Friday, uptrend channel broke down for first time since July.
SRS above 50 day for first time in forever.....more importantly CMF went positive. Money flowing back into short side.
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