If Jeff2earth will allow me this mild blasphemy...I have been to the mountain and spoken with the burning bush. Here is what I can say...
All the patents and intellectual property aside, the game, the only game, that NSOL can play is the CTL game. The property in KY, undeveloped as it may be, is in play. Yet, they have no specific intellectual property related to CTL and the Fischer-Trophs gasification process. If they were to operationalize a plant, they would be doing what every other firm seeking this prize will be doing...buying off the shelf technology and seeking to gain equity investors. The state of KY has limited resources, so funds have to be found elsewhere.
Here is what is needed...
* Permits
* Engineering
Both of the above cost about 2 million, plus
* A feedstock agreement
* An off-take agreement (if they have limited capital, which is likely). Nonetheless, this is consistent in the energy field and not an easy thing to get because it basically says they have a customer willing to buy product at a certain price, whether or not they produce it. I know what you are thinking...that is crazy. No, in energy, it is reality and the only way an investor will give up the big bucks.
Now, it gets interesting...
They will likely need 350-450 million for a niche plant and this will mean giving up equity. Before they decided to be stupid, they were looking at an equity and debt financing deal that required the spin off of FFI. This was because the NSOL name was dirt. If they had spun off FFI, the financing deal was there and NSOL would have made enough money to make a run at an alliance on Tom's River. Shareholders, who were also very greedy and made too much noise about not getting enough, would have been given both ownership in FFI on a prorated basis and would have retained their NSOL shares. But, for some, this was not enough. Why not? Greed. Ignorance. Stupidity. Two out of three?
Can they actually still make something out of this? Perhaps. They need some people to stop playing games and be realistic. They need money to move forward; though it is likely to be provided incrementally. Still, it could foster interest by investors because it is a nascent industry. But, this may require some backtracking and a redo. Not sure about Fairweather being the guy. He might be. Supposedly, he is reasonable and capable, in a self-interested manner. But, no one with any sense takes this role, even if AFORS (an acronym), unless they believe the potential for making some lemonade really exists.
I have been watching and think something is up. But, I am not suggesting anyone put their hard earned money up for this speculative play. I would suggest, however, that some people think less of generational wealth and more of simply getting money back or making a buck. Still, those suggesting this thing is toasted do fail to understand the realities inherent therein...
Enjoy the thought. Despite the loss, it has been interesting...in a self-flagellating manner...
