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WSJ: How Brown's Win Affects Democrats' Agenda

JANUARY 19, 2010, 10:09 P.M. ET.
By COREY BOLES

The Republican victory in Massachusetts imperils, but may not derail, the Democratic agenda in 2010, analysts and congressional aides said Tuesday.

Scott Brown's election to the Senate gives Republicans 41 senators, robbing the Democratic bloc of the 60 votes needed to override filibusters and press ahead with legislation.

How the result could affect specific policy initiatives:

Health Care: To complete sweeping health-care legislation, Democrats have a couple of unpalatable options: Jam through an agreement that has yet to be reached between House and Senate Democrats before Mr. Brown takes his seat; or have the House take up the Senate's version of the health-care bill.

Financial Regulation: The Republican victory puts pressure on Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) to craft a bipartisan deal. Talks with Republicans over a draft proposal were already at a deadlock. Now that Democrats have lost their filibuster-proof majority, Mr. Dodd will have to offer more concessions to win Republican support. Gerald Hanweck, a professor of finance at George Mason University, said Democrats might wait to take up the issue until after congressional elections in November.

Jobs and the Economy: Senate Democratic leaders pushing for new tax cuts and spending to create jobs will now need to listen to Republican ideas on what to include in that package. A focus on job creation in an election year could overshadow other domestic policy priorities.

Climate Change: Democrats have long faced problems advancing legislation to curb emissions of greenhouse gases amid resistance from oil, coal and manufacturing interests within their own party. "If an economy-wide cap-and-trade bill was unlikely before, we think a Republican win in Massachusetts would put it on life support," wrote Whitney Stanco and William Hederman, analysts with Concept Capital, a research firm in Washington. More likely: a bill aimed at encouraging U.S. production of energy from alternative sources.

Immigration: Prospects for an immigration overhaul might not be damaged by the Massachusetts election outcome, given talks between Democrats and Republicans on the topic, said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. But she added that with the dicey politics of immigration, any bill would be an uphill push this year.

Bank Tax: One Obama proposal could receive a boost from the Brown victory: the proposed tax on financial institutions to recoup the costs of the Wall Street bailout, if Democrats seize on it to establish their populist bona fides, as some have already tried to do.

—--Henry J. Pulizzi and Siobhan Hughes contributed to this article.
Write to Corey Boles at [e-mail]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703837004575013443192299132.html?mod=googlenews_wsj