ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:322062, 11/14/04
11/08: (319718) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Zeev, I am ready for the decline, you can let it begin now!<G>
(Part 2)
So am I.... but I think there will be a little more volatility before a trend comes in.
(Part 3)
Zeev, I hope this retrench does not turn out like the July one! I kept my faith in the turnips and am now able to unload some into this rise!
(*END*)
Hey I kept my face in those turnips as well, and since the low in August (1750, called a week before, on the dot), I have been doing quite nicely, thank you. Right now, I have no indications that the retrench will be more severe than a test of 1940, probably higher.
11/10: (320629) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev remains neutral. Is he getting ready to buy ? Or is he waiting for more down side ?
(*END*)
Much more downside.
11/11: (321038) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, They just can't seem to penetrate 2050! (YET) Probably if I closed out some of my remaining positions we would go past it almost immediately!
(*END*)
Yup, we are fighting with the July highs here, but they may take these out, but I doubt we stay above that level long, I still have a retrench coming and just got out of the first serving of APSG here at $34.34 for the bucker.
11/11: (321054) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, still looking for about 1940 or rather anything under 2000? Thanks.....
(*END*)
I said about 85 naz points from the top and 1940 as a solid barrier.
11/11: (321073) (*COMMENT*)
Closed out remaing longs, more upside almost guaranteed!
<fobl>
(*END*)
I am right now at 48% cash, reflecting my opinion that a sizeable retrench should occur soon.
11/11: (321122) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I know, But never understimate the power of my market trading inabilities<g>
(*END*)
Yup, it is packing now and the July high are behind. Yet, the EPC is well above .5, so any retrench should be relatively mild... if we get one (g). Because of the inability to now ahead of time if the map will be followed or not, I always keep few things on the table, and often put OB's under the market to get few things to ride on.
11/11: (321125) (*COMMENT*)
A lot of froth out there.
(*END*)
Yup, got to be careful and take profits when offered, even if you leave some on the table.
11/11: (321299) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
What happened after 500pm DELL was at 37, I go out for dinner and closed AH over 38
(Part 2)
Lunacy
(*END*)
Lunacy is right, I probably will have a sell signal sometime tomorrow (namely more than 100 Naz points drop), not a bear market yet (still have a run to 2275 or so by late January) but a solid retrenchment to the 1940/1960, which from the day's high tomorrow will be more than 100 Naz points. It seems as if the cycle date I had of 11/12 was a high rather than a low. It happens with cycles. My next turn point is too broad (I have from the 23 to the 29th as a turn which includes Thanksgiving, seasonally, the day before Thanksgiving is a good buying point) so that may not be too useful. I will probably end tomorrow with around 50% cash or maybe even higher from a going to sleep level of 42%. Those still in Hans, note that the RSI is getting above 70%, an area from which HANS often take a sharp turn down. HAUP seems to be ready to break out as well, $5 is the buy signal there.
11/11: (321311) (*COMMENT*)
100 NAS points...dream on...dip buyers every where...minor pullbacks of 20 or so points...that is all...
(*END*)
I always hear the same comments at tops that are much more significant then what we are at right now. That worries me as far as the possibility of a post retrench moonshot I expected. We'll see how the internals are going to behave in the next two weeks.
11/12: (321846) (*COMMENT*)
zeev, might this be a coalescing of your december and january rallies into one rally here?
(*END*)
It could be, the new highs keep expanding, but we are getting close to levels that are "unsustainable" (like 500 new highs on the NYSE), so it is still possible we get a retrench, i was expecting to get a "bona fide" sell signal today, but no cigar. So I am slightly defensive with 40% cash, which I need in case they give bargains like ZBRA again....
11/12: (321852) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, sounds like you are less sure of a retrench in here to 2000 level or lower. Are you less sure now than you have been recently? Thanks in advance.
(*END*)
How many times I can say I am "neutral", that means do not expect major downside move, but be careful and keep some ammo dry. I am not saying "full speed ahead damn the torpedo", and surely not "run to the hills".
11/14: (321981) (*COMMENT*)
C: re: " J, looks like Z has changed his mind."
Not sure about that. Maybe he is waiting for some more pieces to fall into place. I would like to see some things develop too. But it may not happen. We will see.
re: "We are overbought big time."
On a weekly and daily basis on price alone, we are as overbought now as at the January top. I have not had weekly readings such as the one registered on Friday since January 16, 2004. That, of course, was an intermediate term top.
Re: "Reminds me spring/early summer 03."
On a weekly basis since March, 2003 and prior to January 2004, I have only once had price indicators this overbought once and that was on September 18, 2003. And that lead to a 104 NDX point drop that bottomed at the end of September, 2003.
(*END*)
I still think that shorting here is to try and catch a top, and typically, in manias, the first retrench is bought heavily. I am sticking by my scenario of a relatively mild retrench, I don't know wherefrom, followed by a run into January/February before a grand Nassacre develop late in the winter lasting at least into April/May. Note that Max pain on the QQQ is probably around $36/7, and we are close to $$39, fuel for delta hedging late next week... and thus a spiky (up) expiry next Friday.
11/14: (321997) (*COMMENT*)
Z: Re: "I still think that shorting here is to try and catch a top."
But the greater risk is holding long here and gaming the top and failing to recognize it and thus end up holding the bag.
Re: "in manias"
I don't see that here so far.
Re: " I am sticking by my scenario of a relatively mild retrench, I don't know wherefrom."
With all due respect, I don't see much left of your orignal scenario to stick by at this juncture.
(*END*)
I am not sure what you are referring to, I had a possible intermediate top here in early november around 2025, on 11/3 we got there and I turned more cautious, so now we are another 60 points higher. I am no disturbed by this inaccuracy, i was fully loaded early in August near 1750, run this 275 Naz points with the load, taking profits on the way and changing few horses, that is the way to make money. Get loaded near bottom and unload as your perceived top is reached, but do not unload more than necessary unless you see big signs of a real top. Just keep flexible, and you can do very well.
11/14: (322034) (*COMMENT*)
the indexes are starting to remind me of the Tom Cruise movie as they are going vertical. sure would be nice to get some selling this week for some relief on the shorts i am carrying
(*END*)
What do you make of max pain on the QQQ, we are quite far, often just adding to the fire as the houses rush to cover their "buts"?
11/14: (322049) (*COMMENT*)
my opinion on max pain is that it follows the index rather than being a predictor of future action as most believe. about the only time i look at it is times like this, where there is a significant difference between the underlying and max pain. im playing for a retrace of last weeks action to close the gap some.
i do not have a good understanding of delta hedging and would appreciate it if you or someone else could post a link to a description or if you could give me a quick overview. from what i do understand, this is a prime setup for that to occur. sure hope it doesnt as i have a big net short position
(*END*)
Steve, I don't know any place where it is described, I have tried few times to explain "my take" on it (I am not big on options nor a great believer in Max pain either). In short, when Max pain is well under the market, as it is now, it means the houses are stuck with a lot of naked calls that are "in the money", and if the do not manage to narrow the gap early in the week, near expiry they are forced to rush into the market buying the underlying security (that is the "delta hedging") causing additional upward pressure on prices (often undone rapidly in the two to three days after expiry). The inverse is the case when max pain is well above the market, a lot of naked puts are outstanding and the houses sell short the underlying equities to cover their naked puts putting further downward pressure on the market. Can you "bank on it", I don't know, but you are gutsy being heavily short here trying to guess how far this thing goes, while it is in "breakout" (QQQ above the July highs, SPY a three years high, I believe) mode. Probably a little "nail biting" time (g).
Added by editing after posting:
11/14: (322085) (*COMMENT*)
The window I use for Max Pain started last Thursday. In a situation where delta hedging occurs, I've noticed in the past the MM's will often move price equal to or slightly more away from Max Pain going into expiration as the distance it was on that Thursday.
For example, let's say Max Pain was roughly 36.50 on Thursday on the QQQ and price began at 37.79 from Wednesday's close. That's 1.29 points above Pain. Ideally, the QQQ should move to a minimum 39.28 (or NDX 1579) to cover the Max Pain spread. Often times it moves above the minimum as the MM's give themselves a profit cushion. The alternative would be to reach the minimum a day or two prior to expiration and then drop into expiration.
Looking at the situation, I think we could see a white candle this week with a bit of a shadow below and above on the COMP/NDX/QQQ, and then a 58 NDX point drop from the top the following week. We'll see.
During bullish moves, it seems we often have fast dumps in November, but recoveries around Thanksgiving.
*END*
I think you may be right, I have a "next" turn date around thanksgiving (Jim also), thus we may top on expiry and the normal post expiry swoon (when expiry is up) turn into a beginning of a short term decline allowing for the typical post Thanks giving EOY run.
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