Tuesday, January 12, 2010 11:42:23 AM
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Uncertainty-Breeds-twst-3572311088.html?x=0
The focus is on Cephalon, which for a long time I considered a strong partnership candidate for cor. Given where we are now, this optimism appears to have been misplaced.
Mr. Amsellem: Another one that I'd point to and sort of a deep value idea is Cephalon, CEPH is the ticker. This is the case of a company that is trading at a very low multiple - nine times 2010 earnings. It's a stock that's really been beaten up, a real underperformer, and it's a classic case of investors being very concerned about the patents on its existing products. Yes, there are major patent uncertainties, but what I think is being overlooked is that the company has made numerous investments in its R&D pipeline and has actually stockpiled a deep pipeline of products that are mainly focused on cancer, immunology and pain management.
What's interesting about that is you have a company here that has some uncertainties regarding its intellectual property but actually does have the sensible IP. So at these depressed levels, you have a cash-flow positive business, a pretty low multiple. I think your risk-reward is favorable, and what I like about Cephalon is this is a company that, I think, has done things the right way. They have made investments in novel assets, new chemical entities - in some cases biologics for difficult-to-treat diseases - but they have taken R&D risk, and then they have legitimately made an effort to build a sustainable business of novel drugs that address unmet medical needs.
Many specialty pharma companies have mainly focused on me-too drugs or tried to focus on extended-release versions of existing molecules, or just tried to slightly improve existing chemical entities, really without making any advances in terms of addressing unmet medical needs. Cephalon is actually doing that. Yes, that entails significant R&D risk, but I think that this is the kind of company that will eventually get credit for those efforts as the pipeline bears fruit.
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