Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[TJ Parker]

re BRIEFING.COM

Google's Secret
Google's growth came about because they found a way to change the model for advertising on the internet.

actually, it was yahoo that found the model. (or rather, idealab! which gave birth to goto.com, based on the model, which became overture, which was bought by yahoo, whose ip goog licenses.)

google's secret was to provide complete and relevant results. (old yahoo was relevant; alta vista was overly complete.)

In addition, because Google presents search results based upon how many times the particular link has been clicked on by prior users, instead of the more common relevancy algorithms used in other search engines, the advertisements are often more in-line with what the user is actually looking for.

this is just plain false. google ranks sites according to authority (and other ideas): basically how many relevant links point to it. so does everyone else (now). what was novel was a way of computing that (or a rank approximating that) very fast. clicks don't mean anything (because, of course, goog never sees what's been clicked on the info that was returned).

The Google business model was markedly different from the Yahoo! business model, which was built on the concept of the banner ad.

goog is primarily an ad broker (for its own search service, but probably later other things); yahoo is a content aggregator. just very different things.

but it all comes back to the success of the search engine, because goog wouldn't make much if nobody ever clicked through.

Microsoft's Competitive Advantage

simple. its netscape redux.

If Microsoft places a Search Icon directly on the desktop of every PC ...

or, like on firefox, a search bar on the browser ...

they're certainly going to do it. and they're clearly working on the desktop search (considering the companies they've bought for that purpose).

easily redo a search performed earlier
email search results to another user
accumulate a database of your frequent search topics, with the idea of refining over time the type of results that you are looking for


also likely underway, since its been in opera and firefox in one form or another. (i.e. just have a history for various text fields on web pages previously visted.)

By making their search engine and specific search features apply to a local PC or intranet, something that Google and Yahoo! can never do, Microsoft can make their search engine become the first-choice method of search by habit, rather than by marketing.

goog already has a search appliance for intranets. maybe local pc search can be "integrated". (its not part of the operating system, but could probably be packaged with it.) but for intranet, you need to set up some server(s) for it anyway. (something has to crawl the net and make an index somewhere.) even on your pc, you're gonna have gigabytes of index that are updated continuously ...

In addition, it is possible that Microsoft will alter or reinvent the business model of buying a prominent spot in search results, as Google did.

yahoo still owns it.

However, on this idea, we currently do not have a clear vision of how Microsoft might innovate. Perhaps we will find out tomorrow.

until it becomes as popular as goog, the point is moot: nobody's gonna bid on msft's words. they could always pepper the results with banners and other ads, but it looks like they (and everyone else) are bowing to expectations set by goog of no prominent ads (other than text).

on the other hand, msft is actively pursuing relationships with bloggers as a venue for ads, in return for promoting content and sending viewers - the yahoo model.

http://www.micropersuasion.com/2004/11/msn_to_tempt_bl.html

Conclusions - It Is Possible For Microsoft To Compete
There is no shortage of viewpoints that Microsoft is too late to the party to be a meaningful player in the search engine space, much less become its dominant player.

However, Google has already proven that the search engine space is vulnerable to new approaches.

Certainly the entire function of searching the internet is far from what it could - and should - be. How many times have you searched for something, consumed several hours, and not really found what you were looking for?

In addition, Microsoft essentially used similar tactics as those we listed above to unseat Netscape's Navigator browser from its early dominant position. Why not do it again?

The real question is how much Microsoft wants to exploit its operating system monopoly position to make their search engine the first-choice of users.

We think CEO Steve Ballmer will be willing to push his exploitation efforts as far as he can. HE might even be willing to invoke the wrath of the Justice Department all over again. Why not? He basically has won all prior battles related to antitrust issues. Whatever penalties and adjustments Microsoft has had to make have not significantly hurt them in the long run. Mr. Ballmer may in fact view antitrust problems in the same way that many drivers view speeding tickets: just part of the price of doing business.

In any event, tomorrow's unveiling of the new Microsoft search engine is worth watching. It probably marks a brand new era in the history of the internet.