VectorVest Stock Analysis of China NatrlGas as of 1/8/2010
This report has five major sections.
Capital Appreciation Analysis
Dividend Analysis
Price-Volume Data
Sales / Market Capitalization Information
Summary
The ticker symbol for China NatrlGas is CHNG. CHNG is traded on the NASDAQ - (xO) and options are available for this stock
Business: China NatrlGas, (CHNG) China Natural Gas, Inc., through its subsidiaries, distributes and sells natural gas and gasoline to commercial, industrial, and residential customers in the Xian area, including Lantian County, and the Lintong and Baqiao Districts of Shaanxi province of the Peoples' Republic of China. The company also engages in the construction of pipeline networks. It offers natural gas through a network of approximately 120 kilometers of high pressure pipelines. The company also distributes and sells compressed natural gas (CNG) as vehicular fuel through a network of CNG filling stations in Shaanxi and Henan Provinces. As of December 31, 2008, it distributed and sold natural gas to approximately 96,033 homes and businesses. In addition, China Natural Gas engages in the conversion of gasoline-fueled vehicles to hybrid powered vehicles. It owned and operated 23 CNG filling stations in the Xi’an metropolitan area and 12 natural gas filling stations in Henan Province. The company was formerly known as Coventure International, Inc. and changed its name to China Natural Gas, Inc. in December 2005. China Natural Gas was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Xian, the People’s Republic of China.
Business Sector: CHNG has been assigned to the Utility Business Sector. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Industry Group: CHNG has been assigned to the Utility (Gas) Industry Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Capital Appreciation Analysis Back to top
Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. CHNG has a current Value of $22.51 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $12.33 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.
RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. CHNG has an RV of 1.50, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.
RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. CHNG has an RS rating of 0.96, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.
RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. CHNG has a Relative Timing rating of 1.32, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.
VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. CHNG has a VST rating of 1.27, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.
Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. CHNG has a Buy recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.
Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. CHNG has a Stop of $11.26 per share. This is $1.07 below CHNG's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.
GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. CHNG has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 21.00%, which VectorVest considers to be excellent. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, as shown weekly in our investment climate report.
EPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. CHNG has a forecasted EPS of $1.31 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. CHNG has a P/E of 9.41. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 59.56. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.
EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. CHNG has an EY of 10.62 percent. This is above the current average of 1.68% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. CHNG has a GPE rating of 2.24. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 4.34%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.19. Therefore, CHNG may be considered to be undervalued.
Dividend Analysis Back to top
DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. CHNG does not pay a dividend.
DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects dividend per share as a percent of Price. CHNG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Yield rating. . DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.
DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. CHNG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Safety rating . Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.
DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. CHNG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Growth rating .
YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DS, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. CHNG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a YSG rating . Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.
Price-Volume Data Back to top
Price: CHNG closed on 1/8/2010 at $12.33 per share
Open: CHNG opened trading at a price of $12.44 per share on 1/8/2010.
High: CHNG traded at a High price of $12.44 per share on 1/8/2010.
Low: CHNG traded at a Low price of $12.15 per share on 1/8/2010
Close: CHNG closed trading at price $12.33 per share on 1/8/2010. (Close is also called Price in the VectorVest system)
Range: Range reflects the difference between the High and Low prices for the day. CHNG traded with a range of $0.29 per share on 1/8/2010.
$Change: CHNG closed up 0.03 from the prior day's closing Price.
%PRC: CHNG's Price changed 0.24% from the prior day's closing price.
Volume: CHNG traded 180,501 shares on 1/8/2010.
AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. CHNG has an AvgVol of 418,792 shares traded per day.
%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals ((Volume - AvgVol) / AvgVol ) * 100. CHNG had a %Vol of -56.90% on 1/8/2010
CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines. CHNG has a CI rating of 1.55, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.
Sales / Market Capitalization Information Back to top
Sales: CHNG has annual sales of $77,000,000.00
Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. CHNG has a Sales Growth of 9.00% per year. This is good. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.
Sales Per Share (SPS): CHNG has annual sales of $3.67 per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): CHNG has a P/S of 3.36. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Shares: CHNG has 21,000,000.00 shares of stock outstanding.
Market Capitalization: CHNG has a Market Capitalization of $261,000,000.00. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.
Summary Back to top
CHNG is undervalued compared to its Price of $12.33 per share, has about average safety, and is currently rated a Buy.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy Low risk, High reward stocks. We suggest that Prudent investors buy enough High Relative Value, High Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and RS ratings of their portfolios above 1.00. As you do this, you'll find that your risk will go down and your investment performance will improve.
