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Re: RKT989 post# 193525

Saturday, 01/09/2010 10:35:42 AM

Saturday, January 09, 2010 10:35:42 AM

Post# of 361665
RKT, a change is needed to your calculations. Cost recovery is done on a sliding scale. 80% of the oil produced early on is cost oil and that slides down to 20% as the development costs are recouped.

So in your calculations 90% of the 10,640,000 (80% cost oil plus half of the profit oil) would go to pay back costs. That means that during payback ERHC would have 1,064,000 in revenue. It also means the paying back that $570M would take only 60 days, plus another 10 days or so to cover interest.

Once costs are recovered the scale slides such that 20% of the oil produced is cost oil and 80% is profit oil. At this point ERHC would be getting 80% of the 10,640,000. ERHC will never see cost oil, that goes to pay the ongoing production costs. That lowers projected revenue to $442M per year. Darn! smile

Of course this is all based on 200K bpd production. AKPO alone produces 225K bpd. I see no reason that total JDZ production couldn't exceed 500K bpd, or even approach 1M bpd eventually.

The numbers truley are staggering.