STEC, Inc - (formerly SimpleTech, Inc.) (STEC)

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January 8, 2010, 11:55 AM ET How My Top Stocks for 2010 Are Doing So Far

By James Altucher
We’re only a little way into 2010 but I already have an update on stocks I wrote about in this November article.

STEC (STEC) is roughly 50% higher. Some readers complained when the article was published that perhaps STEC stock would need to “fill the gap” down to $10.50 before it could begin to move up. The stock was at $12.30 at the time and it ended up falling as low as $11.50 before starting to move up.

While I respect the discipline that technical analysis traders exhibit, it often doesn’t work when staring in the face of real fundamentals. STEC is the leader in its space, is going to have $2 a share in earnings (giving it 5 P/E if it were to fall into the $10s) and the fears of the glut at its largest customer, EMC, have been overblown.

The stock has since gone from a low of $11.50 to more than $19 and Deutsche Bank just put out a report with a “strong buy” and a $36 price target. Its own channel checks on EMC suggest that the glut of inventory isn’t as big as expected and that STEC will surprise over the next quarter. So despite having significant gains I’m holding onto my shares and waiting until at least the mid $20s before taking a look at the lay of the land and deciding what to do.

Although this is a “top pick for 2010,” I always check my assumptions along the way and make decisions accordingly. I’ll watch what’s happening and do a gut check. But I’m a believer here.

WellCare Health Plans (WCG) has gone from a quick $33 to about $37 since the article was written. It had gone as high as $39 and looked like it was going to push through $40 when Oppenheimer downgraded it based on valuation and put a price target of $36 on it. I’m a believer in this stock for the duration of 2010 based on the uncertainty going away surrounding health care. I do think, however, that some profits should be taken here while the dust subsides and the market complete its little pullback after such a strong run. I think long-term this is a $50 stock but I always like to be cautious.

Assured Guaranty (AGO) is basically flat from when the article was written and remains my favorite pick for the year. I’ve read various analyst reports over the past few weeks from hedge funds that have done a forensic analysis of the various securities AGO has on its books and are comfortable with $5 to $6 in earnings over 2010, putting AGO at a P/E ratio of 4 to 5 times. I’m a holder until at least the mid-$30s before I look around.

Incidentally, in terms of another update: On Dec. 22 I wrote about stocks that could soar the last week of the year. The premise was that stocks near 52-week highs with large short interest would go up because short-sellers would have to cover and take their loss for tax reasons. A tax-inspired short squeeze.

This ended up happening. The market was flat from Dec. 22 to Jan. 1 but the stocks of lululemon (LULU), Scholastic (SCHL), and Blue Nile (NILE) were all up, and as a group were up about 3.2%. They’ve continued to go up in the past few days. I recommend taking all profits if you haven’t already.

James Altucher is a managing partner of Formula Capital, an alternative asset management firm, and an author on investment strategies. Unlike Dow Jones reporters, he may have positions in the stocks he writes about.



http://blogs.wsj.com/financial-adviser/2010/01/08/how-my-top-stocks-for-2010-are-doing-so-far/