Ten Monumental Events For The Next Ten Years
Published on January 6, 2010 on www.drkellegro.com
How will the markets, economy and world look in 2020? What follows are Dr. Kellegro’s guesses for what transpires going forward. As a disclaimer of sorts, I believe in Bruce Kovner’s philosophy that he outlines in the original Market Wizards. The basic gist of it being that you must be able to imagine the unthinkable. For example, in 2000 if I would have told you that Bear Stearns and Lehman brothers would be out of business, the Dow would be at 10,500 and an African-American with a Muslim name would be President of The United States…you would have told me to get lost. The unthinkable has a way of becoming reality…so we must think along the lines of the unthinkable in order to have any chance of even being 20% accurate.
1. After suffering at the hands of the two party system and seeing no sign of better times ahead…the American voter will embrace a third party, electing to office a President from this party and as a result of good times for the country, this third party will come to replace either the Democrats or Republicans as the party of choice for most Americans.
2. Due to talk of global food shortages taking place during the first few years of the decade, there will be an abundance of new farms and water systems created to prevent such a disaster. As such, food production will soar creating a surplus of crops that will end up depressing commodity prices for years on end going into the final years of the decade.
3. BRIC countries…with the exception of Russia, will experience social upheaval that renders whatever economic advancements they have made useless. One of the BRIC countries will collapse completely under the weight of this social upheaval creating a medium- term financial crisis.
4. The resurgence of the United States and Western Europe as the economic powerhouse of the global economy will become apparent as we approach the end of the decade, with US GDP growth reaching levels that rival the best of times.
5. Oil prices will plummet into the single digits with gasoline being sold for less than $1.00 per gallon due to economic issues in the BRIC countries and the prevalence of alternative fuels for the entire world. By the end of the decade, nearly all vehicles will be largely independent of gasoline.
6. As a result of depressed oil prices, the OPEC nations, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia, will experience severe economic issues that cause a moderation in the governments. The monarchy of Saudi Arabia will fall and the country will be split into two parts…the larger being more progressive and the smaller of which is a fanatical Wahhabi government that will be seen as the next threat to the civilized world. Iran will experience a resurgence on the global stage as the Islamic government ceases to exist and the country becomes a leader for progressive thought throughout the Middle East.
7. Goldman Sachs will be taken private and then sold off in pieces as the nature of their corrupt behaviour over the past several economic catastrophies becomes inescapable.
8. Housing prices will remain largely unchanged for the entire decade, as an exponential rise in mortgage rates causes homes to become unaffordable for a majority of buyers.
9. Due to a losing effort versus the drug trade, Mexico will legalize and regulate all illegal drugs in the country. This will stimulate Mexico’s economy and lead to the country being one of the top tourist destinations for the world. Mexico, as a result of this policy, will experience of a golden age of wealth and partying.
10. After being voted out of office after his first term, Barack Obama will replace Jay Leno on The Tonight Show. Ratings will soar and by the end of the decade, Barack Obama will be seen as the second coming of Johnny Carson.
