Meridian Resources Corporation (TMR)

[tr8dervic]

It's highly possible that a higher buy out offer will emerge. Fully diluted o/s is 95 million shares. TMR's pv10 with todays oil and gas prices is likely 250 mil or more. (It was 180 mil with 5.79 gas and 44.04 oil) Net of debt that is over 1.50 per share. Discount that by 67% to get a 30% rate of return the next 5 to 7 years .50 per share is justified imho.

Another way to look at it they are selling proven reserves (about 70 BCFE) for 1.84 MCFE or 11.06 per BOE. Todays prices justify selling the gas for 2.50+ per MCF and the oil for 20.00 per barrel imho.

TMR has about 40 BCF gas and 5 million barrels oil. 40 bcf x 2.50 = 100 mil and 5 million bbls x 20 = 100 mil. Takeout price of 200 mil less 100 mil debt gives 1.00+ per share. 10 BCF is probably uneconomic in the austin chalk so we'll get rid of 25 mil for that gas and another 10 mil worth of oil and we get a fair price of about .65 per share.

Any way I slice it, the .29 offer just doesn't make sense. It would have 6 months ago but not now.

All imho and Good Luck,

Vic