End of the Year, End of the Decade
In keeping with the time honored tradition, I offer these year-end predictions, for discussion...
Looking at the 15 year chart of the SPX, one can't ignore the massive double top, with the first top formed in March 2000@1553, and the second top, formed in October 2007@1576. We are STILL firmly entrenched in a secular bear market that began with the formation of the first top in 2000, and could conceivably last for up to 5 more years. My prediction is the that the current bear market rally in the SPX will top out in 2010 around the 1250 area. The stronger the economic numbers released, the sooner the top. Conversely, the weaker the economic numbers, the later the top. Whatever the time frame, the market will take out the March 2009 lows.
Cryoport will successfully commercialize their product,and capture market share, although the road to profitability, will be an arduous one. The stock price will move higher, but will not follow the linear path, that everybody hopes for. This will be the case,of course, until the shit hits the fan again.
Dominant themes will be emerging markets, gold, and basic materials & commodities.
Dollar will rally, and then collapse. Bonds will make new lows, yield curve will steepen, and the banks will reap the benefits.
Dominant trends in VC/Private Equity will be Clean/Green Tech and Cloud Technology.
Bears will win the Super Bowl in 2010, Lovie Smith will be the next Mayor of Chicago, and the Cubs will win the World Series 4-0.