gtober...
"we'll have a recession. i have no doubt. but, only because i believe the economy is cyclical. we'll have lower markets. but in a climate of rising rates and with the potential of a housing bubble unwinding, how severe is going to be interesting. i am not expecting new lows right now."
I agree, but think we will see new lows and a prolonged (perhaps severe) recession. The economy is cyclical as has been proved over our economic history. Greenspan has distorted the normal cycles, though, and I believe we will pay a price for that with a deeper recession when it does hit.
"i'm not one of those that think he has done a horrible job, however"
I will admit to being in the anti Greenspan camp, but if he somehow does manage to avoid a recession, I will pardon him <gg>. I very seriously doubt he can pull it off though, since there are no internal drivers for the economy, which is dragging a lot of internal weight (including record debt levels plus several imbalances and distortions) behind it.
"now, if we do have serious problems, you're right. nobody to blame but Repubs."
I disagree. You just got through saying (correctly) that the economy runs in cycles, and in the next instant you want to blame the republicans. The amazing thing is that Greenspan has been able to pump enough fiat money into the economy to stop the recession/deflation that was setting in and artificially pump the economy and markets back up. The bad news is that he is leaving a trail of bubbles behind him that cannot last forever -- I suspect we will pay a price for his tactics before all is said and done.
mlsoft
