Monday, December 21, 2009 8:00:10 AM
Natural Gas: Unlimited Demand in the Long Term
While the natural gas market may have too much supply and too little demand in the short term, there is practically unlimited demand to replace coal in the long term. The solid black fuel that energized the industrial revolution in the 19th century provides 70% of the primary energy for China’s industrial revolution in the 21st century (see chart Fuel Share of Primary Energy, 2008, below).
China and the U.S. combined consumed 60% of the world’s coal last year (see chart Geographic Share of Global Fuel, 2008, below). In contrast, China gets only 3% of its primary energy from natural gas. The country’s primitive energy mix has to be an increasing concern for its citizens. There may be doubt about the climate impact of carbon dioxide from coal, but there can be little doubt about the health effects of more serious emissions of sulphur, microparticulates, mercury and carcinogens from coal.
Natural gas generates half the carbon dioxide of coal and practically none of the disease-causing pollutants. Meanwhile, cracks are appearing in the Chinese energy supply that may slow the headlong rush to coal and open the door to more natural gas. Reaching the limits of its own coal production, China drove up coal prices in the global market until last year’s financial collapse interrupted.
Early snows in Beijing this fall have created shortages of natural gas for heating, adding to the urgency for more natural gas supply, we understand. In response, apparently, the Chinese leaders are pushing energy companies to step up domestic expansion plans and tap more of the international market in liquefied natural gas. Obviously China and the U.S. need more natural gas to fuel economic growth in cleaner fashion, and that means a positive outlook for natural gas producers. Small cap and income stocks generally offer more concentration on the cleanest fossil fuel than do large caps.
While the natural gas market may have too much supply and too little demand in the short term, there is practically unlimited demand to replace coal in the long term. The solid black fuel that energized the industrial revolution in the 19th century provides 70% of the primary energy for China’s industrial revolution in the 21st century (see chart Fuel Share of Primary Energy, 2008, below).
China and the U.S. combined consumed 60% of the world’s coal last year (see chart Geographic Share of Global Fuel, 2008, below). In contrast, China gets only 3% of its primary energy from natural gas. The country’s primitive energy mix has to be an increasing concern for its citizens. There may be doubt about the climate impact of carbon dioxide from coal, but there can be little doubt about the health effects of more serious emissions of sulphur, microparticulates, mercury and carcinogens from coal.
Natural gas generates half the carbon dioxide of coal and practically none of the disease-causing pollutants. Meanwhile, cracks are appearing in the Chinese energy supply that may slow the headlong rush to coal and open the door to more natural gas. Reaching the limits of its own coal production, China drove up coal prices in the global market until last year’s financial collapse interrupted.
Early snows in Beijing this fall have created shortages of natural gas for heating, adding to the urgency for more natural gas supply, we understand. In response, apparently, the Chinese leaders are pushing energy companies to step up domestic expansion plans and tap more of the international market in liquefied natural gas. Obviously China and the U.S. need more natural gas to fuel economic growth in cleaner fashion, and that means a positive outlook for natural gas producers. Small cap and income stocks generally offer more concentration on the cleanest fossil fuel than do large caps.
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