MetroPCS Communications, Inc. (PCS)

[bowonwing]

Moorman at S&P has $12 TP for PCS. But about a year ago he had an $18 TP. IF PCS can execute it's new market expansion plan effectively and integrate the new G4 LTE network next year and beyond, the later target is within reach. IMO, keys to PCS:

1. PCS's churn rate- are there service problems causing the churn? If so, is PCS working to fix this problem, e.g. the continuous service expansions? Is G4 LTE going to solve some of these "problems," if they are problems. If PCS's networks are "spotty," maybe people will pay $20-30 more a month for all you can eat on a network that provides better overall coverage (T-Mobile's base all you eat voice only is $50, plus taxes and fees= $60; PCS $35, including taxes + fees). A lot of the analyst "downgrades" are siting increasing competition in pre-paid.

2. Traction in PCS's new markets. Q4-09 results, coming out in early 2010 should tell the tale.

Traction in new markets, holding on to core markets (churn), G4 LTE launch in 2010 and some luck, could high double digits is possible 2010+? First of course we first have get over $8, and stay over it (PCS should have been <$8), $10, $12+.