A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd.(fka APWR)

[Ecomike]

Thanks for your reply. Explains in part why it has rallied 2 more times. I still think it has overextended itself here. The street.com sort of agrees with me it seems.

"The news today as a trigger for a further climb in A-Power's share price is debatable. For one, a definitive agreement being signed for the West Texas wind farm is a step, but not nearly as big a step as gaining regulatory approvals and financing for the deal, and completing a feasibility study. The deal was more akin to a memorandum of understanding previously, so a definitive agreement allows the companies involved to chase the big hurdles. Still, it might not justify the bid up in A-Power today in contrast to the pullback in alternative energy.

The extent to which it is the retail dollar and not the institutional investor playing in alternative energy stocks may be in evidence again today in the A-Power run-up.

What's more, it could still be a year until A-Power ships turbines for the West Texas project. While the agreement states that deliveries could begin by March 2010, one alternative energy expert said that deals of this type are often beset by delays, and that extending the delivery time horizon for A-Power out to summer/fall 2010 is more advisable.

Until that time, investors who are modeling revenue from the deliveries into their A-Power outlook, with the expectation of A-Power making the March time frame, may be taking an overly optimistic outlook based on the sector's project history. "

From:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10648726/2/alt-energy-wild-ride-of-the-day-a-power.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10648726/1/alternative-energy-winners-a-power.html?puc=_wal_txt_pla2&cm_ven=EMAIL_wal_txt

I also can't help but wonder how this will play out in future earnings where they are part owner, part contractor, in a totally new market to them, where they end up passing money from the right hand to the left hand of the same company building the Texas Wind farm. Sounds more like someday profits a long time from now to me if they are paying themselves for part of the cost of building it and then wait for operating profits to show up before it show ups on the books? The stock crashed earlier this year over an analysts warning and exiting the stock as an analyst when he complained of a lack of earnings visibility months ago, when I made the prior mistake of holding it too long. I don't like making the same mistake twice.

Don't get me wrong, I am very bullish on this company, but not at these prices, at this time. And it is just too dangerous these days to buy and hold for 2-3 years in this current market IMHO.