falconer66a, I have been waiting ...
I have been waiting for someone to say out-right, as you just posted, good insight falconer,...that the AMEP story has changed from the 193 PRI heavy Oil wells, being in the process of re-working and treated with HOA-800 (and that's great); to the Barnett Shale well program with a much, much higher return per well, and +8,000 acres to develop; and what the revenue stream may be per year, as you calculated, for 20 to 30 years per well, per the DD after re fracing.
As far as the well spacing, I did not use the full 40 acres apparently allowed by the TRRC. I calculated conservatively, and will take happy surprises if my figures are discounted too much in your DD. You discounted the return per well which is good. I am personally in my own DD, additionally discounting the 40 acre well spacing by 50%(a big discount), to 60 acre well spacing. That yields on +8,000 acres over the AMEP Barnett leases a theoretical total of 133 wells. Also being extremely conservative, I use only $1,000 per well, per day (a big discount, especially when "compounded" with the 50% well spacing discount), thats a 80% discount on the $5,000 daily revenue stream of the AMEP Palo Pinto well announced this summer in the Barnett. That gives a very, very conservative 133 wells X $1,000 per day revenues = $133,000 per day in revenues. Figuring 10 days down time for regular maintence per well, I used 355 days X $133,000 = $47,215,000 annual gross AMEP revenues.
If CB drills some horizontal wells, and I believe he will when the revenues can finance it-(IMHO and the DD), we will have to raise our revenue projections, as horizontal wells yeild a much higher daily NG and Oil flow rates, as much more of the formation is tapped and fraced.
Anyway you cut it, or discount the well spacing, or discount revenues per well,... the outcome is an under the radar, extremely low priced stock, generating ramping revenues going from "potential revenues" to "reality of the revenues" with an active AMEP well development program..
Additionally we can add the revenue stream for the 193 AMEP, PRI heavy Oil wells using AMEP's HOA-800. That revenue is not in the 47 million figure above, but will be when additional information is released by AMEP on progress of that lease; so calculations can be made, i.e. average barrels per day, per well.
BTW, that $47 million also does not include the productive Strawn and the Conglomerent proven formations also below some of the 8,000 acres. That figure can be calculated after additional information is released regarding those two additional pay zone formations on the AMEP leases.
Great post falconer66a, appreciate any future DD post.
GLTY.
... %^ greeneyedhawk
AI
