Saturday, December 12, 2009 11:31:50 AM
Here's a look at previous attempts at support and there are some huge standouts about the last 3 trading days.
First, it has always bothered me that I have seen so many "ostensible lows" set on green candle days. I have generally looked the other way on it because I like anyone wanted to see a bottom put in on this take down along the way. Unfortunately, true bottom lows are not normally created on green candles. Here we have seen more than our share. Too many, and they proved their worth.
Next, there is a strength test coming off of a newly set low that shows up. IOW, what is the action post the low, that either confirms or denies how solid the low may be, and will it hold. The circles on this chart show all the "bottoming" attempts going back to Sept 21 (and remember the CE was applied on Sept 8th, just ahead of this chart where the only other 7 consec red sequence was recorded in the history of the company...the 4 reds ahead of the top circle are part of that sequence).
When you look at the data inside each "NO" circle, you see basically what you don't want to see in any real bottom low attempt worth its salt. You either see a low made on a green day, and or, in the next two trading days after the low is set, you see weakness (and in many cases substantial weakness). EXCEPT. In the last circle of the last three days. Here you see a proper low made on a red day and on fairly heavy V and a sell-off push (I would have liked to see more sell V but 15M would qualify since the support low did touch a previously justified resistance level, where then buying V equaling the day's total sell V moved in). You then see one modest green candle that made a higher low, then yesterday, you see the kind of strength that you would want to see as follow through (with no lower shadow whatsoever, and then a close very near the highs of the day...which represents the highest form of trading strength there is). And which 8 times out of 10 is followed with more strength the next trading day or even the next few because it's a very bullish sign to traders that a move has legs. And esp, since yesterday's BUY:SELL ratio was 10M:5M...a very bullish ratio on decent V and certainly not seen in a while.
Then to support that further, it is known that yesterday's strength related to a very significant event to the company and to the stock in the ticker being reinstated as CLEAN, and back to the highest rating level on the exchange (not to mention the completion of the scaled commercial PBR which can now finally be properly sold to the public). Having all of this together (chart data and news) packs quite a punch. So we'll see what comes next week. Obviously data wise, we see the MA's that need to be overtaken in order to really get the maximum number of new believers to the post. First, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, comes the 20. A close above that now, sets the stage for the rest.
So what's my point? My point is, what we have just seen occur in the data is a condition that has not occurred in this takedown until now. And if "it" is interpreted as the "right" way to identify a true potential and lasting low/bottom, then all that means is the stock is at this moment in the best shape it's been in for quite some time. And having the proven positive news backing this up, makes it if nothing, finally boding well for BEHL longs. Now, in newfound strength and arms, we can take a solid run at the next set of resistors in our way. Once we get those, it's look out above! gl
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